‘Soft’ survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning’s Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations.
That smashed ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – back to cycle lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s Chicago PMI plunged to 41.4 – its lowest since May 2023 – from 44.0 (and well below the expected bounce to 46.0)…
Source: Bloomberg
That was below all analysts expectations for the second month in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood was even more problematic:
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New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
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Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
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Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
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Supplier deliveries fell and a faster pace; signaling contraction
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Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
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Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, Prices paid rose again!
So, in summary: slower growth, declining production, shrinking orders, falling employment… and accelerating inflation – is it any wonder that ‘soft survey’ data is collapsing – not exactly election-winning headlines.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/28/2024 – 10:40
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Author: Tyler Durden
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