A new tracking poll was released on Thursday by Punchbowl News showing a majority of senior Capitol Hill aides believe the Republicans will regain the House in 2022.
An overwhelming majority (66 percent) believe the Republicans will reclaim the majority, thus ending House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) short four-year reign of trying to push through her radical, one-sided agenda.
This includes 36 percent of Democrats surveyed who also believe they will lose the House majority.
The survey was conducted anonymously between April 13 and 19 online, through Locust Street Group in partnership with Punchbowl News. The survey asked 171 senior Capitol Hill aides.
“Members of Congress are the ones with the election certificates, but, in many cases, their aides hold outsized power. Senior staffers are the gatekeepers and, in many cases, the decision-makers,” Punchbowl News said.
The survey also asked whether the aides on the Hill believed some of the top issues on Capitol Hill would pass in the current 117th Congress.
Seventy-four percent believe an infrastructure plan will pass, along with 48 percent saying a tax plan, while 42 percent said legislation to deal with prescription drug costs.
Recently, the Republican campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), expanded their list of offensive seats by ten seats, adding more vulnerable Democrats they hope to pick off in the midterm election. This now brings NRCC’s initial 47-member list of offensive targets to a full list of 57 vulnerable House Democrat members.
Additionally, three former chairs of the Democrat’s campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), sounded the alarm. They see Pelosi’s extremely slim majority starting to slip away as more members are starting to retire or look for higher office.
Former Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), who led the DCCC in 2012 and 2014, said that “The two biggest headaches of any cycle are redistricting and retirements, and when you have both in one cycle, it’s a migraine.”
Rep. Martin Frost (D-TX) said that, when it comes to redistricting and retiring, “It’s very early in the game, but retirements are a concern.”
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL), the previous DCCC chairwoman and a top lieutenant of Pelosi’s, announced that she would not be seeking reelection last week, throwing in the towel.
Republicans could also be boosted by former President Donald Trump, who has started the process of turning his powerful campaign machine into a vehicle to help his party take back control of Washington.
“I stand before you this evening filled with confidence that in 2022, we are going to take back the House (of Representatives) and we are going to reclaim the Senate. And then in 2024, a Republican candidate is going to win the White House,” Trump said during a Republican donor event last month.
Measuring the opinion of those willing to put their money where their mouths are; the bookies are giving the GOP a 70% chance of retaking the House.
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