Market Talk – April 16, 2021

ASIA:

China just posted its strongest quarterly growth on record as the world’s second largest economy continued its robust recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. GDP growth of 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter was the strongest since China began keeping records in 1992, and was driven by a surge in retail sales, industrial production and investment in fixed assets. On a year to year basis China’s economy grew by 2.3% in 2020.

India’s trade deficit in goods widened to $13.93 billion in March from $9.98 billion during the same period a year earlier, revised trade data released by the government on Thursday showed. Merchandise exports rose 60.29% in March from a year earlier to $34.45 billion, while imports were up 53.74% to $48.38 billion, the data showed. For the whole fiscal year ended on March 31, the goods exports were down 7.26% to $290.63 billion while imports fell 18.02% to $398.18 billion from a year earlier, the data showed. Imports too grew by 53.74% to $48.38 billion in March, but dipped by 18% to $389.18 billion during April-March 2020-21, according to the government data released on Thursday.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 40.68 points or 0.14% to 29,683.37
  • Shanghai increased 27.63 points or 0.81% to 3,426.62
  • Hang Seng increased 176.57 points or 0.61% to 28,969.71
  • ASX 200 increased 4.90 points or 0.07% to 7,063.50
  • Kospi increased 4.29 points or 0.13% to 3,198.62
  • SENSEX increased 28.35 points or 0.06% to 48,832.03
  • Nifty50 increased 36.40 points or 0.25% to 14,617.85

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00166 or -0.21% to 0.77337
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00409 or -0.57% to 0.71352
  • USDJPY increased 0.15 or 0.14% to 108.83
  • USDCNY decreased 0.00258 or -0.04% to 6.52416

 

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 15.00 USD/t oz. or 0.85% to 1,778.21
  • Silver increased 0.19 USD/t. oz or 0.75% to 26.054

 

Some economic news from last night:

China:

House Prices (YoY) (Mar) increased from 4.3% to 4.6%

China Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) increased from 72.69 to 73.73

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 35.0% to 25.6%

GDP (YoY) (Q1) increased from 6.5% to 18.3%

GDP (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 3.2% to 0.6%

Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q1) increased from 2.3% to 18.3%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 35.1% to 14.1%

Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 35.1% to 24.5%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) increased from 33.8% to 34.2%

Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Mar) increased from 33.78% to 33.90%

Chinese Unemployment Rate decreased from 5.5% to 5.3%

Japan:

Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) increased from 40.29 to 41.07

Reuters Tankan Index (Apr) increased from 6 to 13

New Zealand:

Business NZ PMI (Mar) increased from 53.4 to 63.6

Singapore

Non-Oil Exports (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 8.30% to 1.20%

Non-Oil Exports (YoY) (Mar) increased from 4.20% to 12.10%

Trade Balance decreased from 6.210B to 5.610B

 

Some economic news from today:

India:

FX Reserves, USD increased from 576.87B to 581.21B

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

The UK fintech sector has started 2021 with a bang after raising a record total of $2.9bn (£2.1bn) in the first quarter of the year. According to new figures from Innovate Finance, the industry body representing UK fintech, a total of 117 deals were struck across the industry, with investment levels up 153% compared the previous quarter. The investments this year include Checkout.com ($450m), Starling Bank ($376m), Blockchain.com ($120m initially and then $300m), Rapyd ($300m), and PPRO Financial ($180m initially and then $90m).

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 52.93 points or 0.85% to 6,287.07
  • FTSE 100 increased 36.03 points or 0.52% to 7,019.53
  • DAX 30 increased 204.42 points or 1.34% to 15,459.75

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00116 or 0.10% to 1.19809
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00351 or 0.25% to 1.38197
  • USDCHF decreased 0.0027 or -0.29% to 0.91928

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) increased from -35.5% to 11.5%

Car Registration (MoM) (Mar) increased from -43.1% to 453.4%

Italy:

Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) increased from -12.3% to 497.2%

Italian Car Registration (MoM) (Mar) increased from 6.7% to 18.7%

Italian Trade Balance (Feb) increased from 1.584B to 4.754B

Italian Trade Balance EU (Feb) increased from -0.19B to 0.61B

Germany:

German Car Registration (MoM) (Mar) increased from 14.5% to 50.4%

German Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) increased from -19.0% to 35.9%

France:

French Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) increased from -20.9% to 191.7%

French Car Registration (MoM) (Mar) increased from 5.0% to 37.8%

Swiss:

PPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from -1.1% to -0.2%

PPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.3% to 0.6%

Euro Zone:

Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 1.1% to 0.9%

Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.1% to 1.0%

CPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.2% to 0.9%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.9% to 1.3%

CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.2% to 0.9%

CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 1.3%

CPI, n.s.a decreased from 106.54 to 106.53

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 1.2% to 1.0%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.1% to 0.8%

Trade Balance (Feb) increased from 11.0B to 17.7B

US/AMERICAS:

Wall Street closed in the green after the Dow recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains. On the Dow, Cisco experienced the highest percentage change (2.25%), followed by Home Depot (1.65%), Johnson & Johnson (1.15%), and Goldman Sachs (1.11%). This markets the second day that the Dow closed above the 34,000 level after adding an additional 164.68 points to close at 0.48%.

Washing imposed an array of sanctions on Russia, which include cubrs to its soverign debt market, in response to alleged cyberhacking, Ukrainian border intimidation, and interfering in the US presidential election. A number of Russian-based companies were blacklisted and diplomats have been expelled from the US. US banks are prohibited from purchasing soverign bonds from Russia’s central bank. In response, Moscow has expelled 10 US diplomats and a government spokesman said there will be “an array of painful decisions for the American side,” if restrictions continue.

“I think the economy is ready to rip,” Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told reporters at CNBC this Friday. Waller said he believes that people believe the virus is under control and that it will result in a strong rebound of economic activity. Still, he noted that unemployment is relatively high and is of great concern for America’s economic future. Inflation is beginning to rise, and Waller predicts the Fed’s preferred gauge will move up to 2.5% this year.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 164.68 points or 0.48% to 34,200.67
  • S&P 500 advanced 15.05 points or 0.36% to 4,185.27
  • Nasdaq advanced 13.58 points or 0.1% to 14,052.34
  • Russell 2000 advanced 5.6 points or 0.25% to 2,262.67

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 29.4 points or 0.15% to 1,153.58
  • TSX 60 advanced 1.56 points or 0.14% to 1,153.58

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 413.26 points or 0.34% to 121,113.93

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • Crude Oil decreased 0.37 USD/BBL or -0.58% to 63.0900
  • Brent decreased 0.2 USD/BBL or -0.30% to 66.7400
  • Natural gas increased 0.013 USD/MMBtu or 0.49% to 2.6710
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0066 USD/GAL or -0.32% to 2.0452
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0052 USD/GAL or -0.27% to 1.8937

 

 

  • Top commodity gainers: Gold (0.85%), Coal (0.99%), Soybeans (0.92%) and Bitumen (1.15%)
  • Top commodity losers: Palm Oil (-3.99%), Cotton (-1.53%), Coffee (-1.13%), and Copper (-0.99%)

 

The above data was collected around 11:39 EST on Friday.

 

BONDS:

Japan 0.093%(+0bp), US 2’s 0.16%(+0.006%), US 10’s 1.5798%(+4.98bps); US 30’s 2.2763%(+0.07%), Bunds -0.276% (+2bp), France -0.0184% (+2bp), Italy 0.75% (+1.9bp), Turkey 17.35% (+0bp), Greece 0.923% (+2bp), Portugal 0.399% (+1bp); Spain 0.399% (+1.71bp) and UK Gilts 0.763% (+2.4bp).

 

The post Market Talk – April 16, 2021 first appeared on Armstrong Economics.

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Author: Martin Armstrong


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