Last week, the i reported that the Conservatives have adopted an 80/20 strategy for fighting the coming general election: that means digging in to their 80 most marginal seats, whilst also throwing resources at the 20 most marginal seats where they ran other parties closest in 2019.
As William Atkinson then noted, this is an appalling tactical decision. Whilst it might have been justifiable a couple of years ago, when the first reports of it emerged, it bears no relation to the dire state of the polls today, most of which suggest that the Tories are heading for a worse defeat than their annus horribilis in 1997.
In that election the Party picked up just 165 seats; in 2019, it won 365. Even allowing for the erosion of the Conservative majority over this Parliament, CCHQ could throw its entire budget at defensive contests and still not have enough to shore up every front now under threat.
Which, of course, is the problem. Engaging honestly with the reality of the Party’s current position would mean making some very politically-painful choices. It would require Rishi Sunak to dig his trenches in such a way as to abandon a large number of MPs, most obviously the Red Wall, out in no-man’s land. That would not do much for the parliamentary party’s already-fraying discipline.
(It isn’t that there is zero prospect of Tory gains. Just as in 2017, it may be that the Scottish Conservatives pick up a few from the ailing SNP even as the national party goes backwards. But it’s not as if CCHQ has picked 20 Scottish targets.)
Yet whilst this might be difficult for Sunak and his colleagues, it would very obviously be in the best long-term interests of the party. Not only is throwing resources at an impossible defence not going to save those seats, but it could also make the difference between victory and defeat in once-safe seats – especially in the so-called Blue Wall, where the primary challengers are the resurgent Liberal Democrats.
Whilst many seats lost to Labour may likely be regained, Sir Ed Davey’s party are unlikely to make the mistake of returning to office anytime soon. Absent that, their MPs could hold on to seats won in this election for decades.
It is therefore no surprise that our panel overwhelmingly opposes the 80/20 approach: fully two-thirds of those surveyed think CCHQ should concentrate its resources exclusively on defensive battles, versus barely one-fifth who favour taking the fight to the opposition parties.
Obviously the membership don’t set the strategy. But one wonders whether the Party might find it challenging to redeploy activists from seats that it (and only it) officially deems ‘safe’ to campaign in its fantasy marginals.
The post Our survey. Two thirds of Conservative members think CCHQ is wrong to be targeting Labour seats. appeared first on Conservative Home.
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Author: Henry Hill
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