Germany today is celebrated as the indispensable economic and industrial power of modern Europe. But like many advanced nations, Germany faces demographic decline in the coming decades, which could threaten Germany’s economy and — consequently — the economies of Europe and the world.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan predicts a German economic collapse as a result of its looming demographic crisis, and then examines the fallout of that collapse as it reverberates across Europe.
The following is an excerpt from Peter’s April 5 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Germany has had a streak hotter than the ’96 Chicago Bulls. The German economic model has contributed to European political, economic, and industrial success, but problems are on the horizon.
Germany’s industrial success can be attributed to three trends: a high value-added economy focusing on skilled labor, access to cheap energy and inputs from Russia, and a global trade system facilitated by the U.S. Now take away all three of those things, mix in an aging population, workforce shortages, and swath of geopolitical challenges, and you’re left with a very scary picture for the Germans (and Europe).
Germany’s role as the hub of multinational manufacturing means that collapse could send ripple effects across Central Europe, with political, economic and strategic implications.
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