Monmouth University Poll Shows Biden With Slight Lead Over Trump in Florida

A brand new poll reveals that President Donald Trump is trailing Democratic candidate Joe Biden in Florida, a crucial swing state that both sides are fighting hard to win.

A Monmouth University Poll released on Tuesday showed Biden is leading Trump 50 percent to 45 percent.

Biden’s lead is just outside of the survey’s margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent:

Another model, based on low likely turnout, shifted slightly in the president’s favor, giving him 46 percent to Biden’s 49 percent.

While Biden leads among Latino voters, the survey found that Trump may be gaining among older voters in that group:

The Democrat has a large advantage among voters of color (70% to 22%) although the lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). According to the 2016 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the national networks, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%).

“Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained.

“There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,” Murray added.

Overall, 38 percent of voters indicated that they were “certain” to vote for President Trump in November, compared to the 41 percent who said the same of Biden.

Forty-one percent of voters had a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the president, compared to the 51 percent who maintained an unfavorable view.

Florida voters appear to be highly motivated to vote in the presidential election, with 88 percent stating that they are “very” motivated to vote, followed by eight percent who said they were “somewhat” motivated, and three percent who said they were “not that” motivated.

That coincides with a plurality expressing general enthusiasm for voting in this year’s presidential election.

Forty-seven percent said they are “more enthusiastic” than usual when compared to past elections.

But Trump is trending in the right direction.

“Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with five percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate,” according to a press statement.

If Republicans — and those against Joe Biden and what the Democratic Party supports — get out an vote, it seems clear that it will be a great night for Republicans and a bad one for Democrats.

Other recent polls from North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin should have Democrats worried.

Several AARP polls also found that in the race for eight hotly contested Senate seats, GOP incumbents are surging ahead of Democrat challengers.

The post Monmouth University Poll Shows Biden With Slight Lead Over Trump in Florida appeared first on Conservative Brief.

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Author: Martin Walsh


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