David Lu is a Canadian political staffer and political campaigner now based in London. He previously worked for the Progressive Conservative government in Ontario.
The carbon tax in Canada is set to rise to CA$85 from the current CA$65 per tonne. Planned to take effect on April 1, this not an April Fool’s joke, and it has led to premiers of seven provinces to ask the Trudeau Government to pause or delay the increases.
Since 2015, Justin Trudeau has placed fighting climate change near the top of his mandate, and after the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2016, it was inevitable that measures will be placed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada. In 2018, this came in the form of a legislation that forced provinces to put a minimum price of $20 a tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2019.
To make this charge more palatable, the federal government claimed a pairing tax rebate will leave eight out of ten Canadians with more money in their pocket than they pay out.
In theory, this price on carbon will not only reduce GHG emissions and discourage polluting activities, but it will also leave Canadians richer. So why are seven first ministers, including a Liberal one, and Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, been on such a crusade against it?
For start, a recent opinion poll showed only 15 per cent of Canadians would like to see the tax increased as planned in April. Against that, 42 per cent would like to see it scrapped, 17 per cent would like a temporary cut for the next three years, and 25 per cent would like the rate increase to be frozen.
Thus, the politicians fighting this tax would appear simply to be representing the views of their constituents.
While the Prime Minister insists that a tax rebate will leave most citizens with more money than they contribute towards the carbon pricing, parts of a report from the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer showed that net cost is not such an easy calculation, saying:
“When both fiscal and economic impacts of the federal fuel charge are considered, we estimate that most households will see a net loss, paying more in fuel charges and Goods and Services Tax, as well as receiving lower incomes, compared to the Climate Action Incentive payments they receive and lower personal income taxes they pay.”
Meanwhile, rising costs of housing, groceries, heating, and fuel have all contributed to an affordability crisis leaving most Canadians feeling the pressure. Inflation, and high mortgage and interest rates, certainly doesn’t help, but the price on carbon – dubbed a “tax on everything” by critics – has recently been seen as a major culprit.
Trudeau has a decision to make: appeal to the masses and pause the increase, or keep this fight going. Despite knowing that this issue might be the number one topic in the next election, it seems as if Trudeau will still choose to double down.
Plagued with five ethics violations and countless scandals over the last he years, the Prime Minister is starting to lose his appeal to voters who have kept him in power since 2015. Canadians seem to be looking past his charm on screen and focusing more on what he has delivered (or not delivered) for the country.
His big ticket policy from the last election, $10-a-day childcare, actually relies on the provincial governments to do all of the work. The universal dental and pharmacare, meanwhile, probably wouldn’t have happened if the Liberals didn’t need the NDP coalition to stay in power.
At a time where 70 per cent of Canadians believe the country is broken, and only 24 per cent intending to give their vote to the Liberals, the carbon tax could be Trudeau’s last attempt to establish a legacy in the eyes of progressives.
However, and despite it having been in place for eight years now, rare poor communication from the Liberals has left Canadians still confused about what the policy actually intends to do. To most, the carbon tax seems merely a pet project that Trudeau won’t budge on.
Many believe that there are other ways to reduce GHG emissions, without a price on carbon. Investments into transit can take cars off the road; cleaner energy solutions such as nuclear power can replace the dependency on coal. So too would embracing the future of electric vehicles by transforming the auto manufacturing sector, investing in EV battery production, and leveraging Canada’s abundant critical minerals.
These are all solutions provinces like Ontario are doing combat climate change – whilst reducing the Gas Tax to keep the cost of fuel down.
While Canadians are not denying that global warming is caused by human activities, this is no longer a debate about climate change. It is about whether Canadians still believe Trudeau is leading the country to a better place.
It appears that he is losing the communications battle on this one; regardless of the merit of the carbon tax, Canadians are just not convinced anymore.
Yet the Prime Minister recently claimed that his job is not to be popular, but to do the right thing for Canada now, and for Canadians a generation from now. Will this be the hill that he is willing to die on?
Poilievre probably hopes it is. Capitalizing on Trudeau’s decreasing popularity, he is positioning himself as the only leader fighting against the rising costs and champion of the dream of home ownership. The polls suggest this is paying off handsomely, so far.
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Author: David Lu
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