Tech mogul Elon Musk signaled that by next year or by 2026, artificial intelligence would be smarter than the smartest human mind.
Musk had an interview with Norway wealth fund CEO Nicolai Tangen on X Spaces last Monday, where they discussed various factors limiting AI development, including electricity concerns.
The Tesla CEO also gave an update on when to expect the next version of Grok, an AI chat box similar to OpenAI’s Chat GPT developed by his startup, xAI.
“If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years,” Musk said when asked about the current development timeline of AGI.
“By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined,” he wrote on X.
Musk, who also co-founded OpenAI, noted that the lack of advanced chips is another factor in the recent slowdown of Grok’s version 2 model.
The Tesla CEO founded xAI last year in protest of OpenAI, which he slammed with lawsuits for abandoning its original mission to create an AI that benefits humanity and not to gain profit. Meanwhile, OpenAI denies Musk’s claims.
“Last year, it was chip-constrained,” he said. “People could not get enough Nvidia chips. This year it’s transitioning to a voltage transformer supply. In a year or two, it’s just electricity supply.”
The xAI founder shared that to power the Grok 2 model, they needed 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs and that the next Grok models will need 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips.
Aside from the issue of chip shortages, another constraint on AI development is the electricity supply, which is crucial in the next year or two.
Musk also warned about “civilizational destruction” if AI is mishandled.
“Even if you say that AI doesn’t have agency, well, it’s very likely that people will use the AI as a tool in elections,” he said in a previous interview with Fox News.
“And then, you know, if AI’s smart enough, are they using the tool or is the tool using them? So I think things are getting weird, and they’re getting weird fast.”
“What’s happening is they’re training the AI to lie. It’s bad,” he added. “AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production. In the sense that it has the potential, however, small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction.”
Last year, Musk expressed concerns about the rapid ramifications of AI. During the launch of xAI, he remarked: “If I could press pause on AI or really advanced AI digital superintelligence, I would. It doesn’t seem like that is realistic, so xAI is essentially going to build an AI. In a good way, sort of hopefully.
“It’s actually important for us to worry about a Terminator future in order to avoid a Terminator future,” Musk added, referencing the film where a self-aware computer system waged war on humanity.
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Author: The Raging Patriot
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