A big problem in getting Iran to act responsibly has been its usage of proxies to stir up hostilities, skirting any direct involvement and thus avoiding military retaliation on its own soil. However, its April 13 attack against Israel has now opened the door for such retaliation.
This was a foolhardy decision by Iran. Israel has long toiled with how to deal with the mullahs’ push to develop their own nuclear arms arsenal. Israel had established a reputation for never allowing an unfriendly regional state to do so. In 1981, it took action to destroya nuclear reactor being built by Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and in 2007 to destroy a nuclear arms development proxy effort in Syria by President Bashar al-Assad that was to benefit Iran. While Israel has quietly undertaken some efforts to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program by conducting cyberattacks and assassinating its leading nuclear scientists, such actions have only caused delays to date.
In a way, such Israeli actions spoiled the U.S. It was content to leave any issue involving Middle East nuclear arms development by unfriendly countries to the Israelis to resolve. This is why then-President George W. Bush declined an Israeli request to participate in the 2007 Syrian air attack.
As Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot said after Israel acknowledged its involvement in the 2007 Syrian raid, “The message from the attack … is that the State of Israel will not allow the establishment of capabilities that threaten Israel’s existence,” adding, “This was our message in 2007, this remains our message today and will continue to be our message in the near and distant future.”
Thus, the April 13 Iranian attack now gives Israel justification for a retaliatory strike against Iran which, if undertaken, conceivably will not be wasted by failing to attack aspects of Tehran’s nuclear capability. This may well be Israel’s only opportunity to deliver a destructive thrashing of the type “Leroy Brown” suffered in Jim Croce’s No. 1 1973 hit “Bad, Bad Leroy Brown.”
Croce’s lyrics painted the picture of a tough guy – “the baddest man in the whole damn town” – who eventually learned there is always someone tougher. After trying to move in on “the wife of a jealous man,” a fight broke out at the end of which, “Leroy looked like a jigsaw puzzle with a couple of pieces gone.” The Middle East’s tough guy – Iran – may soon be paying the price Brown did as Israel explores the opportunity to deliver a devastating blow to Iran’s nuclear program.
There is an interesting aspect to Iran’s April 13 attack. As evidenced by the brutal Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas raid into Israel that killed at least 1,200 – most of whom were innocent civilians – key to its success was surprise. There was absolutely no prior warning of what was to occur. However, this was an element totally absent from Iran’s recent strike, involving at least 300 drones and missiles.
Once launched, the suicide drones needed between six and nine hours to reach their targets. The Israelis not only had sufficient time to prepare their defenses but even had time to call a Cabinet meeting to discuss their options before these airborne bombs struck. Accordingly, Israel and its allies were able to intercept 99% of the incoming aerial payloads.
Despite the minimal damage Israel suffered (including the wounding of a 7-year-old Israeli girl), Iran’s leaders subsequently described the attack as “powerful,” boasting it was a “victory” for their people. Its top generals outlandishly claimed the attack “achieved” its goals as Israel’s air defenses were “incapable” of preventing it. They also boasted Iran had inhibited a U.S. response as President Joe Biden had announced before the attack the U.S. would not participate in any retaliatory Israeli strike, unbelievably even communicating to Iran it would tolerate an attack “within certain limits.”
Biden’s actions were outrageous and totally contrary to sound military logic. The ancient Chinese military general and strategist, Sun Tzu, warned that in warfare, “The whole secret lies in confusing the enemy, so that he cannot fathom our real intent.” Yet Biden handed U.S. intentions to the mullahs on a silver platter both by telling them we would tolerate a limited attack and would not get involved.
It is doubtful the actual results of Iran’s attack were shared with its people as a damage assessment report would have revealed any claim of victory was totally unwarranted. In terms of any rate of return based on the cost of weaponry expended and any right of just cause for launching the attack, Iran’s investment was a net zero effort.
Biden, despite his own numerous U.S. foreign policy failures, and as he has done concerning Israel’s prolonged Gaza war, now seeks to dictate Israel’s foreign policy. He warns Israel not to undertake retaliation that would result in all-out war with Iran – which would include a direct attack on Iran. Biden’s interference in Israel’s foreign policy has already caused it to call off an immediate strike. But Israel must now ponder whether to undertake a retaliatory strike based on the sin of Iran’s action or on the inconsequential impact of its strike.
If Israel were to initiate a devastating attack against Iran and Biden then pulled U.S. support–which he is fully capable of doing – Israel needs to be concerned. Despite Israel’s technological advantages over Iran, the latter does have the numbers advantage when it comes to manpower in fighting Israel. But then, Iran also must worry about an all-out war with Israel providing the trigger for the Iranian population to effect a regime change.
While both Israel and Iran are playing a chess match in which great risks are being undertaken, the ball is now in Israel’s court to respond. Unfortunately, Israel’s decision is made much more difficult due to the Biden factor. Based on Biden’s failures to date, however, perhaps the best advice for Israel would be to do just the opposite of what he demands!
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Author: Lt. Col. James Zumwalt
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