# Minnesota’s Models Predict A COVID-19 Death Rate Higher Than Any Country

The mathematical models that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has used to guide his response to the coronavirus predict that his state will experience more virus-related deaths per capita than any country on Earth.

Minnesota State House Republican Leader Kurt Daudt says that when he was briefed on the models his state has used to guide its coronavirus response, the Department of Health (MDH) refused to show their predicted death rates plotted over time. However, journalist David Montgomery of MPR took matters into his own hands recently, and used the most current predictions made by the University of Minnesota and MDH to create a visualization that shows how many Minnesotans the Walz administration believes will die of coronavirus.

The most current version of the model predicts a peak somewhere around 550-600 deaths per day, according to MPR.

This is a significantly higher death rate adjusted for population that even that which was endured by Italy, which saw a peak morality rate of around 1.4 people per 100,000, as Daudt points out.

Daudt’s calculations appear to be accurate according to statistics reported by Worldometer. Additionally, numbers reported by Statista show how Minnesota’s models predicts a higher peak death rate per 100,000 residents than even that which was seen in Belgium, the nation that has suffered the highest death rate per capita of anywhere in the world.

The last version of Minnesota’s models issued even more dire predictions than the current ones. Version two of the models said that a least contained senario without the governor’s sweeping stay at home orders could have resulted in 1,500 deaths per day at its peak. Even the “baseline” scenario predicted by this model foretells about 1,000 deaths per day at its high point, according to MPR.

By last model’s numbers, Minnesota could have sustained a 17.7 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to Daudt. This would make Minnesota over 170% more deadly than Italy.

842 people have died of COVID-19 in Minnesota as of May 22, per the MDH. This represents .015% of the overall state population. Presently, there has been no clear peak time period for deaths like there has been in other countries.

For comparison, Italy has already passed a very apparent peak in deaths per day.

The post Minnesota’s Models Predict A COVID-19 Death Rate Higher Than Any Country appeared first on Alpha News.

This content is courtesy of, and owned and copyrighted by, http://alphanewsmn.com and its author. This content is made available by use of the public RSS feed offered by the host site and is used for educational purposes only. If you are the author or represent the host site and would like this content removed now and in the future, please contact USSANews.com using the email address in the Contact page found in the website menu. The owner of this website may be paid to recommend American Bullion. The content of this website, including the positive review of American Bullion, the negative review of its competitors, and any other information may not be independent or neutral. Follow Jonah on Twitter at @JTorgerud.