The remarkable thing about Simon Clarke’s January article calling for the Prime Minister’s replacement was how much of it was possible to nod along to without agreeing to its conclusion.
“The unvarnished truth,” according to Clarke, “is that Rishi Sunak is leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred”. I would not disagree. He continued: “If Nigel Farage returns to the fray, as looks increasingly likely, extinction is a very real possibility for our party”. Again, this is a judgement which our Contributing Editor was expressing only yesterday.
The George Lazenby of Levelling-Up Secretaries also fairly assessed Sunak’s strengths and weakness. Few would doubt that the Prime Minister is “decent to the core, fiercely intelligent, and works formidably hard”. But it is also true that he does not entirely get “what Britain needs” or “what the British people want”. Brexit and 2019 were votes for changes Sunak can’t and won’t deliver.
Immigration has soared. Our economy has stagnated. I hailed Clarke’s calls for a “home building mission in the best Conservative tradition, to address soaring house prices and rents”. I agreed with his demands for “tax reform, welfare reform, [and] planning reform”. Many a ConHome reader will be amenable to Clarke’s demands to clampdown on crime, protect our culture, or reform public services.
Yet despite all that, I don’t adhere to his core recommendation: that we need to “change the [Conservative] leader to a Prime Minister who shares the instincts of the majority and is willing to lead the country in the right direction” and which will enable us to “recover strongly in 2024”. This is only partially because I remember the last Prime Minister that Clarke recommended as tribute.
It is not that I don’t think that a hypothetical, charismatic, zeitgeist-ceasing, ubermensch (or uberfrau) of a Prime Minister could rescue the Conservatives from the hole into which they are currently sunk. Boris Johnson took us from fifth place to first in a matter of months back in 2019. Forcing Tim Shipman to write yet another book would amuse me. But I don’t believe in fairytales.
Removing and replacing a Conservative leader is not a simple task. Not only do you need to assemble a sufficient posse of troops willing to go over the top with you – something Clarke lacked in January – but you must be careful what you are wishing for. As I find myself saying so often these days, and as the last few years have readily proved, things can always get worse.
Even if Sunak’s opponents crossed the 52-letter margin of required entries via Graham Brady’s postbox, they would then have to command a sufficient number of MPs to win a confidence vote in Sunak. If he survived one, the examples of Theresa May and Boris Johnson would suggest he wouldn’t last long. But even if he resigned to head for a well-earnt rest in Santa Monica, could they find a leader capable of uniting MPs again?
The odds suggestion not. A rebel could hope for, say, Suella Braverman, and easily end up with Jeremy Hunt. Sunak’s critics on the right can’t forget the hundred or so members of the One Nation Group. Sunak’s opponents might only hasten, rather than forestall, the inevitable. Following a failed putsch, an embittered Sunak could call a “sod you” election, bringing the defeat forward in spite.
Of course, this is all utterly mad. The Cabinet might say no to Sunak’s demands. Could they stop him going to the Palace? Could the King be called upon, via the Lascelles Principles, to refuse a dissolution? Even if an election did go ahead, would Sunak remove the whip from his opponents, preventing them standing as Tory candidates as a final two-fingered salute? Would they hot foot it to Reform UK? Just how awful could the campaign be?
Questions upon questions; insanities upon insanities. Neither a leadership nor a general election are topics I hope to spend my summer writing about. But I look with increasing gloom at the upcoming local elections. The Tories look to set to lose at least half their seats. Andy Street and Ben Houchen will be defenestrated from their Northern fiefdoms. Susan Hall will usher in a third Sadiq Khan term.
Number 10 and Tory MPs would be unable to fool themselves any longer. The polls would be right. Those MPs not already jumping ship to the local Job Centre would know they were soon to be unemployed. Chaos would reign. Sunak’s authority would be shot. The Devil would make work for idle hands, and the 52-letter threshold could be swiftly reached. Cue Brady back on our televisions.
Pandora’s Box would be open. The general public – already demanding a general election to kick us lot out – would be even more appalled. Even if, miraculously, a new leader of substance emerged, they would lack the Vote Leave team, the Brexit raison d’etre, and the benefit of the doubt that blessed Johnson five years ago. There would be nowhere to run. Did someone mention zero seats?
An unhappy prospect, I’m sure we all agree. But an increasingly likely one. Blood will have blood.
The post Brace for a no confidence vote in Sunak after the local elections appeared first on Conservative Home.
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Author: William Atkinson
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