Report: The novel Coronavirus, 2019‐nCoV, is highly contagious and more infectious than initially estimated

This scanning electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2 (orange)—also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19—isolated from a patient in the U.S., emerging from the surface of cells (green) cultured in the lab. Credit: NIAID-RML (NIAID/Flickr)

(INTELLIHUB) — A report titled The Novel Coronavirus, 2019‐nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated authored by Steven Sanche, Yen-Ting Lin, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero‐Severson, Nicolas W. Hengartner, and Ruian Ke concludes that the Rο value of the 2019-nCov Coronavirus strain is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. — meaning the virus is much more deadly than scientists initially thought.

The abstract from the report reads:

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high‐resolution real‐time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Read the full report here: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2002/2002.03268.pdf

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