Iran’s drone and missile assault on Israel Saturday night into Sunday is an open act of aggression, but it isn’t the start of this conflict. It’s an escalation of the war Iran has been waging against Israel for months through its Middle East proxies. The difference now is that Iran’s imperialistic face is in the open rather than in the shadows, and that should change calculations in Washington in particular.
Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been the puppet masters of Middle East mayhem, the better to avoid direct culpability. Israel’s strike on April 1 against IRGC generals in Syria, in response to Iran’s proxy attacks against Israel, was apparently more than the mullahs could tolerate. The weekend attack is truth in advertising at last, and it is an ominous sign that Iran is willing to take new escalatory risks.
It should also be clarifying to Western leaders about Iran’s malevolent intentions. Thousands of American citizens live in Israel and could have been casualties. Iran’s bombardment wasn’t discriminate or limited to military targets, unlike Israel’s precision strike that killed the IRGC generals.
The fact that most of the drones and missiles were intercepted is a relief, but it isn’t reassuring against future swarm attacks. Israeli air defenses were a spectacular success, aided by assets from the U.S., U.K., Jordan, and perhaps others. But what happens if the next attack comes all at once from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria as well as Iran?
This is another case of failed U.S. deterrence. President Biden had warned Iran not to attack after U.S. intelligence detected signs of preparation in Tehran. “Don’t,” Mr. Biden said. But like Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, Iran went ahead anyway, no doubt confident that Mr. Biden wouldn’t respond militarily. And sure enough, the word Sunday is that his main message in a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Saturday was not to strike back.
White House theories of escalation management don’t work against a regime that thinks a U.S. President fears escalation more than Iran does. U.S. restraint since the Oct. 7 massacre has encouraged Tehran to see how much more it can get away with.
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Author: Ruth King
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