Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author, and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com.
My latest poll finds that while individual Budget measures were popular, most voters think it leaves them and the country no better off and the Tories’ rating on the economy is down, as is their vote share.
Meanwhile – among other things – is Boris Johnson’s return to the campaign trail likely to help Conservatives? Would they do better with a new leader? So we need new laws on extremism? How willing are Labour and Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically? And who should play Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer in the film of their lives?
Boris and Blair: asset or liability?
News that Boris Johnson is set to return to the campaign trail in an effort to shore up the red wall coincided nicely with our question as to whether certain figures would be an asset or a liability on the campaign trail. Voters as a whole thought Johnson would be a liability to the Tory campaign by 59 per cent to 20 per cent (with 2019 Tories saying the same by the narrower margin of 43 per cent to 37 per cent).
Of the Conservatives we asked about, only Penny Mordaunt was considered more of an asset (by 28 per cent to 21 per cent).
On the Labour side, the only figure to be considered a net asset was Rachel Reeves, though with 42 per cent saying they didn’t know. Voters were closely divided as to whether Keir Starmer, Gordon Brown and Angela Rayner would gain or lose more votes for Labour. The biggest potential liabilities were Jeremy Corbyn (61 per cent) and Tony Blair (50 per cent).
Replace Rishi?
With the Conservative poll rating still in decline, speculation has continued that the party might choose a new leader before polling day. Only 17 per cent of voters, including just under a quarter (24 per cent) of 2019 Tories, think replacing Rishi Sunak would improve the party’s chances at the general election, while half think it would make no difference. Around one in ten think another change of leader would make their chances worse.
The Budget
When we tested various individual measures in last week’s Budget, we found majorities approving of each one. The new tax on vape products, higher tobacco tax and fuel duty freeze were particularly popular. More than six in ten (63 per cent) also approved of the chancellor’s headline measure, the 2 per cent cut in National Insurance.
However, when asked about the overall effect, only 14 per cent of voters said they thought the Budget would leave them better off personally, with 2019 Labour voters (19 per cent) more likely to say this than 2019 Tories (12 per cent). People were more likely to say they would be worse off than better off, and more likely still to say it would make no difference.
When we asked about the effect on the country as a whole, the balance was still more negative. Only one in ten voters overall thought the Budget would leave the country better off, compared to nearly three in ten (28 per cent) who said it would make things worse. 2019 Conservatives were nearly twice as likely to say the Budget would make the country worse off (21 per cent) as better off (12 per cent).
Extremism
Following Rishi Sunak’s speech in the wake of the Rochdale by-election and growing tensions over Gaza, we found voters as a whole more likely to agree that we need tough new laws to clamp down on extremism (46 per cent) than that we should use the laws we already have to tackle the problem. 2019 Conservative voters said that new laws were needed by nearly two to one, while fewer than four in ten Labour and Lib Dem voters agreed. Those leaning towards Reform UK wanted to see new laws by 66 per cent to 30 per cent.
Asked what they thought was the bigger threat to Britain’s democracy and way of life, 20 per cent named Islamist extremism and 15 per cent named right-wing extremism, while more than half (52 per cent) said both were equally serious threats. 2019 Conservatives said Islamist extremism was the bigger threat by 35 per cent to three per cent, while Labour voters named right-wing extremism by 31 per cent to eight per cent. Only three per cent of all voters said neither was a serious threat.
What’s been happening?
The Budget dominated people’s recollections of political news over recent days. Four in ten mentioned it unprompted when asked, with a further 15 per cent specifically mentioning National Insurance, child benefit changes and what they saw as lack of support for pensioners. Other political stories people remembered included Gaza, Theresa May’s retirement, the Rochdale by-election, small boats and Sunak’s speech on extremism, none of which were named by more than seven per cent.
Our analysis also shows what kind of voters are most likely to have recalled each story. News about Angela Rayner’s council house and lack of support for pensioners in the Budget were most likely to have been noticed in prosperous Conservative-leaning territory, while stories about small boats were most likely to have been picked up in the less prosperous, Brexit-backing bottom right.
Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK, Sunak’s extremism speech, and Gaza were most likely to be mentioned in the more diverse and left-leaning left-hand side of the map.
Leadership and the economy
Keir Starmer’s lead over Rishi Sunak on who would make the best prime minister is up a point on last month, with Starmer unchanged at 33 per cent and Sunak down to 19 per cent – though nearly half (48 per cent) of voters say “don’t know”. Only 42 per cent of 2019 Conservatives name Sunak, while two thirds (67 per cent) of 2019 Labour voters name Starmer. Those currently leaning towards Reform UK prefer Sunak to Starmer by 24 per cent to five per cent, with 71 per cent unable to choose between them.
Despite the positive reception for some individual Budget measures, Labour’s lead on the economy is also up since February. Just over one third (35 per cent) say they think Starmer and Rachel Reeves would do a better job, compared to 22 per cent for Sunak and Jeremy Hunt; 43 per cent say they don’t know. Fewer than half (47 per cent) of 2019 Tories name Sunak and Hunt, as do only 28 per cent of those leaning towards Reform UK – though only seven per cent of them think the Labour team would do a better job.
Only seven per cent of all voters (including just nine per cent of 2019 Tories) said they were satisfied with the current Conservative government, while a further 37 per cent said they were dissatisfied but would still rather have this government than a Labour one. Just over half (56 per cent), including one fifth of 2019 Conservatives, said they were dissatisfied with the Tory government and would rather have a Labour one instead. The overall figures were unchanged since last month.
Voting intention
We ask voters how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election on a scale from 0 to 100. Among 2019 Conservatives, the mean likelihood of voting Tory again was 42/100 (down from 48 in my February poll), while Labour voters’ likelihood of sticking with their party was 69/100 (up from 66 last month).
Taking those who put their chances of voting for their highest-rated party at 50/100 or above, the implied vote shares are Labour 45 per cent, Conservative 23 per cent, Reform UK 11 per cent, Green eight per cent, and Lib Dem six per cent. In Scotland, Labour leads the SNP by 30 per cent to 28 per cent, with the Conservatives on 16 per cent, and the Greens and Reform UK tied on seven per cent.
Based on these scores, only 36 per cent of 2019 Conservatives currently say they are likely to vote for the party at the next election, while eight per cent lean towards Labour, 14 per cent lean towards Reform UK, and just over a third (34 per cent) say they don’t know or will not vote.
How enthusiastic are you?
Only one in ten of those currently intending to vote Conservative said they were enthusiastic about their vote (“they’re doing a good job and deserve to win”), compared to 37 per cent of Labour supporters who said the same. A majority (54 per cent) of Tory leaners said they were not very enthusiastic (“not everything they’ve done is right, but they’re doing fairly well given the circumstances they face”).
Nearly one in three (32 per cent) Conservatives said they were not enthusiastic at all (“I’m not very happy with them, but they are better than the alternative”) – compared with just 17 per cent of Labour voters who said the same of their party.
Tactical vote?
In the run-up to the Liberal Democrats’ spring conference this weekend, we asked those currently leaning towards Labour and the Lib Democrats how willing they would be to switch their vote if the other party stood a better chance of beating the Conservatives in their area. In both cases, just over half said they would be willing to do, including 27 per cent in both cases saying they would be “very willing”. However, Labour voters were more reluctant to switch to the Lib Democrats than vice versa.
Election date
Amid continuing speculation that the PM was considering calling a spring election, we asked people how soon they wanted to go to the polls. Overall, 39 per cent wanted an election in May (including 63 per cent of 2019 Labour voters), compared to 22 per cent who preferred the autumn and only eight per cent who wanted to wait until January 2025. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 preferred the autumn (33 per cent) to May (23 per cent), with just 12 per cent wanting to wait until the last possible moment.
The political map
Our political map shows how different issues, attributes, personalities and opinions interact with one another. Each point shows where we are most likely to find people with that characteristic or opinion; the closer the plot points are to each other the more closely related they are.
Here we see that the centre of gravity of the Conservative vote has shifted further into the more prosperous top right quadrant since 2019, and that those who think the Tories’ election chances would be improved by replacing Rishi Sunak are most likely to be found in the Leave-voting bottom right. This is also where we are most likely to find people thinking we need new laws to tackle extremism, and that the Budget would make the country worse off.
And finally…
Over the Oscars weekend we asked people which actor ought to play Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer in a movie about their lives. Dev Patel was the most popular unprompted choice to play Sunak, followed by Rowan Atkinson and Roland Rat. Rami Malek and Tom Cruise were also suggested by a number of participants.
Colin Firth was the clear favorite to play Starmer, followed by Michael Sheen, Hugh Grant and, again, Rowan Atkinson. Kermit the Frog also received a surprising number of nominations for the role.
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Author: Lord Ashcroft
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