The Mayer Multiple calculates that by the time of the 2020 block reward halving, BTC/USD should have reached $30,500.
Uploading fresh readings from his price forecasting tool, the ‘Mayer Multiple,’ the serial commentator and bitcoin proponent said that current trajectory should favor an end-of-year bitcoin price of $21,000.
The Mayer Multiple is a calculation achieved by dividing the current bitcoin price by its 200-day moving average. Currently at 2.09, the metric has only seen higher readings 14.79% of the time, meaning that a giant leap to $40,000, in particular, is unwarranted.
“…Very low probability of $40k in a few months,” Mayer summarized.
As Cointelegraph reported, bitcoin succeeded in retaking the $10,000 barrier late last week, only to go on past $11,000 within 24 hours.
The performance buoyed analysts, many of whom considered $10,000 to be a watershed moment. Investors waiting on the sidelines, they argued, would jump on board once five figures were reached, triggering a snowball upward price effect.
At press time Monday, markets were nonetheless taking a break from bullish movement, BTC/USD settling at around $10,850.
For the rest of the year and beyond, however, the Mayer Multiple considers moves through $15,000, $21,000 and then $30,500 to be probable. The first of these would nonetheless be “overvalued” should it hit in September, but thereafter, bitcoin would find its price niche.
June 2020 should trigger the $30,000+ bitcoin, roughly a month after the next block reward size halving event.
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Author: William Suberg
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