What is the reason for voting Conservative? Many voters, including many with a Conservative outlook, feel a bit stumped – as is painfully apparent from the opinion polls. But those in Greater London, considering how to vote in the election for Mayor of London on May 2nd, may find less of a puzzle. The reason to vote Conservative is to kick out Sadiq Khan. Londoners have been very patient with him. But since he became Mayor, in 2016, he has failed to deliver on crime, transport and housing. When challenged on his failings he becomes petulant and blames central Government. So the Conservatives may do rather better than the opinion polls would suggest. But, as James Heale writes in The Spectator, of “an expected rise in split-ticket voting, with many Londoners backing the Tories in May before switching to Labour later this year.” He adds:
“One Tory candidate tells of a typical doorstep encounter. ‘I’m going to smash your party at the general,’ said the voter. ‘But I’ll back you in the mayoral to get that man out.’ The Mayor’s image is as likely to be found on Conservative leaflets as Labour, with some in Khan’s own party choosing to airbrush him from their messaging.”
Might this split voting apply elsewhere? To some extent. For instance, we can imagine council candidates out canvassing this week being asked about William Wragg MP. The voter asks: “Is it not rather misguided of Conservative MPs to send photographs of their genitalia to complete strangers?” The canvasser sighs and nods sympathetically. But then gently points out that these are local elections. Wragg’s genitalia is a matter for the General Election. What about potholes? What about wheelie bins? Fair-minded voters would see these issues are more relevant
That still leaves the Conservatives to show a local reason why they are better than Labour (or the Lib Dems). There was a report in the Sunday Telegraph of a survey of Conservative councillors. It was commissioned by some mischievous scamps at Labour Together but was conducted by a reputable pollster, Savanta. 47 per cent of Conservative councillors feel the Government is “too left wing”. 26 per cent “about right.” While 24 per cent feel it is “too right wing.” These right/left terms are pretty useless. But let’s suppose the Conservative councillors feel the Government is “too left wing” as it is taxing and spending too much, imposes too much regulation, is too indulgent of woke assaults on free speech, tradition and patriotism. I would agree. But what are these armchair critics doing to set a good example in their own town halls? Not much, I fear.
I suppose the upshot is that people will vote Conservative where and when they have a reason to.
There is a mildly positive sign in the number of candidates that have been nominated. I am indebted to the ElectionMapsUK Twitter account for offering a spreadsheet of Statement of Persons Nominated. It says the Conservatives are contesting 94.6 per cent of seats. Labour is contesting 91.4 per cent of them. These elections were last contested in 2021. According to Rallings and Thrasher, that time round the Conservatives contested 97.5 per cent and Labour 93.3 per cent. So both are down a bit but the Conservatives are still ahead. The Green Party are up a bit (contesting 62 per cent compared with 59.4 per cent last time.) The Lib Democrats have slipped back (67.9 per cent this time, down from 73.4 per cent in 2021.)
Reform UK is only contesting 12.2 per cent of seats – which compares to practically nothing last time but is still pretty low. What was more surprising is that they are hardly contesting any Police and Crime commissioner elections. Looking at the information gathered on the Vote UK Forum, they seem to have even fewer PCC candidates than last time.
Last time round the Conservatives had 919 councillors elected, Labour had 928. The Conservatives were ahead in the opinion polls at the time. They made gains. If there has been such a change since then that the Conservatives are in an existential crisis for the Conservatives then the tally for the Statements of Persons Nominated offers something of a discrepancy.
I don’t want to make too much of this. Even if the Conservative local election losses are more modest than the opinion polls would suggest that should not provide false comfort for the General Election. In Wandsworth, the Conservatives had to keep separate local and national canvassing records as residents felt a reason to vote Conservative in the Council elections no matter how disillusioned they were with John Major, or whoever it happened to be. I’m sure Heale is right about the significance of split voting.
So rumours of the death of the Conservative Party may have been exaggerated. When it comes to persuading people to stand for election to the local council it is still rather more alive than the Labour Party.
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Author: Harry Phibbs
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