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A study published in mid-March argued that a portion of the San Andreas fault line in California could be ramping up for a big shake. Just like every other semi-active fault in the world.
A fairly active section of the San Andreas fault, called Parkfield, is supposedly behaving quite differently from the last time it ruptured in 2004, according to a study published in the journal Frontiers in Earth Science. Parkfield is said to splinter once every 22 years or so and often shows some tell-tale signs before it does.
These signs include the opening and closing of cracks beneath the surface of the Earth. But apparently, Parkfield is acting so differently to the 2004 earthquake that there’s no way to know where or how strongly the next quake will hit, according to the study’s lead author Luca Malagnini.
Below is an excerpt from the LiveScience report:
In the new research, Malagnini and his colleagues measured seismic wave attenuation, or how sound waves lose energy as they move through Earth’s crust. Attenuation is related to the permeability of rock, Malagnini said. In the period of stress before an earthquake, cracks open and close in the strained rock around the fault. The new study found that before the 2004 earthquake at Parkfield, the attenuation of low-frequency waves rose in the six weeks prior to the quake, while the attenuation of high-frequency waves fell.
This, Malagnini said, is the result of strain on the rocks as the Pacific plate in the west moves against the North American plate to the east. As the stress builds, long cracks ranging in size from several hundred feet to 1 mile (1.5 kilometers) long open up in the subsurface. These long cracks take up some of the strain on the surrounding rocks, so shorter cracks in the rock close up. This decline in short cracks and increase in long cracks explains the bifurcation in the energy loss of different seismic waves, Malagnini said.
Right now, there are hints that Parkfield is entering the final phase of its quiet period, Malagnini said. The timing is right, for one thing: Parkfield has “skipped” quakes before, but those missed quakes in the 22-year cycle occurred when nearby, unrelated earthquakes changed the stresses in the region. There have been no such quakes this time. Another possible hint is that the variation in the attenuation measurements has dropped very low since 2021. A similar drop in this measurement occurred in 2003 before the 2004 Parkfield quake.
Part of the San Andreas fault may be gearing up for an earthquake https://t.co/EgrHGVwD1Y
— Live Science (@LiveScience) April 9, 2024
The following social media post shows a map of the San Andreas fault line.
California just had a 4.5 earthquake just east of the San Andreas fault line around 1830hr pic.twitter.com/ryHEmhF6WB
— Supreme Consciousness (@AmrcnTwsterMnft) April 5, 2024
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