West Remains Silent as Israel Balkanizes Syria One Piece at a Time

While Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir is calling for Israel to “eliminate” Syria’s Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS), an armed group designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council, the Turkish parliament approved a motion by its speaker, condemning Israel’s attacks on Damascus. HTS has warned of an invasion of Tel Aviv should Israel continue with its plan to remove al-Sharaa. Turkey, which has a history of backing different opposition factions in Syria, perceives Israel’s assault on the Syrian army headquarters in Damascus as a direct challenge to its strategic interests, and more broadly, as part of Israel’s expansionist agenda in Syria. These warnings underscore the unstable dynamics of the conflict and the risk of it spiralling into a larger regional war.

Israel’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has recently intensified, with the IDF claiming to protect the Druze minority. On July 14, 2025, Israeli airstrikes targeted Syrian government tanks in Suwayda province in response to sectarian violence between Israeli-backed Druze militias and Bedouin tribes, resulting in significant casualties. With Israeli support, the Druze are seeking separation from the central authority dominated by HTS and other Islamist factions, including remnants of ISIS and Al Qaeda. This move aligns with Israel’s expectations (strategy) that Syria must be fragmented into regions governed by different ethnic or ideological groups, as the Druze pursue autonomy. A balkanised Syria could lead to serious instability and unrest, directly impacting the lives of its citizens. Israel’s involvement in Syria is establishing a model for other groups to seek independence, which further erodes the idea of a unified Syrian nation, which seems to have been Israel’s plan all along. This new chapter of the conflict in Syria, marked by Israeli involvement and Druze separatism, could ignite a much broader regional unrest, with the potential to spark a wider regional turmoil, involving additional local and global players.

Israel has openly acknowledged its ongoing efforts to fragment Syria along sectarian, ethnic, and regional lines. Today, the Israeli government is leveraging the current situation to further its strategy of fragmentation and expansion in Syria, a move predicted in a Situation Assessment report from March 2025, released by the Arab Centre for Research & Policy Studies.

DOCUMENT: March 2025, situation assessment report on Israel’s Policy in post-Assad Syria (Source: Doha Institute)
israeli-policy-on-syria-after-fall-of-assad-regime

In this tragic context, it is impossible to honestly talk about “post-war Syria,” or to mourn a country that seems to no longer exist (at least for now), as geopolitical analyst and host of @SyrianaAnalysis, Kevork Almassian, asserted during a recent conversation with Sarkis Yousef from @assyrian_army. Back in February, we spoke with Syriana Analysis, where we cover the balkanization of Syria.

NEW MAP REVEALS ISRAEL’S PLAN TO BREAK UP SYRIA COMPLETELY

Dive into the dramatic transformation of Middle East borders and understand why Syria’s breakup is a historic turning point. This eye-opening clip reveals a controversial new map and Israel’s strategic moves that… pic.twitter.com/Kw2oFG6Szt

— Patrick Henningsen (@21WIRE) July 17, 2025

Today, we are featuring a piece from the Tehran Times which skillfully breaks down Israel’s strategic push to fragment Syria…

IMAGE: Israel Strikes At The Heart Of Syria’s Military Command In Dramatic Escalation (Source: Al Jazeera via X)

Tehran Times reports on Syria…

Behind the airstrikes: Israel’s strategic push to fragment Syria

TEHRAN – Recent weeks have seen Israel intensify its military operations in both Gaza and Syria. The entire international community has been in complete panic since then.

Tel Aviv officials portray the attacks as measures of protection for Israel and minorities, while a closer look shows a vicious hand is at work.

There are growing concerns over Israel’s deepening involvement in Syria, where its military actions are increasingly seen not merely as deterrent measures but as instruments in a broader strategy to reshape the regional strategic landscape.

A deadly situation in Syria

Following the collapse of the ceasefire between Syrian forces and Druze militias in Suwayda, southern Syria has become the fresh front of Israel. Sectional clashes saw over 100 Druze civilians murdered, which was cited as a justification for Israeli interventions.

While Israel claims that it seeks to protect the Druze, with reference to ties to the Golan Heights community, analysts contest it, instead pointing to increased civilian casualties and displacement produced in Suwayda and Daraa by Israeli airstrikes.

Nonetheless, with little casualty reporting from either Israeli or Syrian fronts, exact figures remain unclear, but humanitarian agencies do stand to confirm that dozens of people were killed and injured over the past few weeks. They also complain that rather than securing and stabilising the region, Israel is further sharpening sectarian tensions.

Eradicating Syria’s military infrastructure

The broader objective behind Israel’s operations in Syria appears increasingly focused on eliminating what remains of Syria’s military capacity. Since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in late 2024, Israel has launched over 350 airstrikes on Syrian territory. These attacks have targeted key military assets, including missile storage facilities, air defense systems, and naval infrastructure.

According to regional security experts and multiple independent sources, between 70% and 90% of Syria’s former military infrastructure has now been destroyed. This goes far beyond deterring potential threats; it represents a preemptive dismantling of Syria’s ability to reemerge as a strategic actor. Some observers characterise this as a form of warfare aimed not merely at the country’s targets but at ensuring the permanent fragmentation and disempowerment of the Syrian state.

Strategic interests disguised as humanitarian concerns

Israel’s emphasis on protecting Druze communities in southern Syria has been met with widespread skepticism. The shared ethnic bonds between Israeli Druze and Syrian Druze may hold certain cultural truth, but it is the geopolitical expediency of this narrative that analysts find more compelling.

Hassan Hanizadeh, an expert on Arab affairs, contends that Israel is exploiting local sectarian grievances—particularly the recent massacre of over 100 Druze civilians—as a pretext for deepening military operations and advancing its strategic foothold in southern Syria. He asserts that this campaign is partially aimed at pressuring the de facto leadership of Syria under Ahmad Shar’a (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) and encouraging separatist movements among ethnic and sectarian minorities.

Hanizadeh identifies the Druze, Kurds, Turkmen, and Alawites as communities being pulled into a growing project of fragmentation—one that benefits Israeli and American interests by ensuring Syria never returns to its status as a unified, sovereign actor.

A regional plan for fragmentation and control

The analyst further argues that Israel and the United States are jointly pursuing a regional strategy designed to partition Syria into smaller, ethnically and sectarian-based states. This redrawing of borders and destruction of centralised power structures has significant implications—not only for Syria’s territorial integrity but for the broader stability of the Levant.

In support of this larger vision, the U.S. is reportedly facilitating the mobilisation of 15,000 militants near Lebanon, aimed at provoking Hezbollah and increasing cross-border tensions. Meanwhile, Hanizadeh suggests that Julani may be engaged in confidential negotiations with Israel under frameworks established by the Abraham Accords. In return for financial support and political recognition, Julani may agree to abandon Syria’s historic claim to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, effectively isolating Hezbollah and weakening Iran’s influence in the region.

He also notes how the erosion of Syria’s traditional military structure—previously loyal to the Assad government—serves to empower Takfiri militias under Julani’s control, further shifting the internal power dynamics in ways that suit Israeli strategic interests.

Humanitarian disasters amid strategic war games

Both Gaza and Syria are enduring severe humanitarian crises worsened by ongoing military actions and political manipulation. Israeli airstrikes in Syria, especially around Suwayda, have caused mass displacement and cut off thousands from vital aid.

Targeting of displacement centers, hospitals, and key roads has crippled humanitarian efforts, with warnings from international organisations about looming famine and disease if attacks continue. Despite the escalating crisis, many Western governments remain largely silent, effectively enabling Israel’s aggressive military strategy.

Critics argue that Israel’s use of air power and proxy militias to control southern Syria deepens instability and fosters radicalisation—the very outcomes Israel seeks to avoid. Israel’s operations go beyond immediate security concerns, aiming instead to reshape Syria’s internal dynamics and regional alignment through force and alliances with sectarian groups. The burden falls hardest on civilians in Druze-majority areas caught amid Assad’s government collapse, Takfiri militias’ rise, and persistent foreign intervention.

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