Heatwaves and Excess Deaths–The Facts

By Paul Homewood

Further to the Guardian’s absurd claim that “last week’s heatwave killed 600 people”, it is worth going back to the ONS analysis carried out after the 2022 heatwaves:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessmortalityduringheatperiods/englandandwales1juneto31august2022

In short, deaths spiked during the hot days, but quickly fell back below average. Over the period as a whole, the number of deaths was normal.

People may have died a few days earlier than they would otherwise. But the heat did not kill them at all – they were dying anyway, and the heat was no more than a trigger, just as a bit of cold or wet weather could have been.

Because the ONS study was carried out before all summer deaths had been registered, they included this table:

Although the number of deaths in 2022 appears to be slightly higher than usual, what is noticeable is that the hot summer of 2018 recorded one of the lowest totals of the decade. In contrast, 2016, a much cooler summer, recorded the highest number of deaths until 2021.

Clearly then, there is no correlation between heat and increased deaths.

We need, of course, to be wary of comparing post pandemic death rates with those before – we do know that there were large numbers of excess deaths throughout 2022, for reasons never explained.