Could President Donald Trump be the lone voice of caution in a world itching for another Middle East quagmire? As Israel ramps up its aerial campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump is pumping the brakes, haunted by the specter of Libya’s post-intervention nightmare, as the New York Post reports. It’s a rare moment of restraint in a region where bombs often speak louder than diplomacy.
At the heart of this unfolding drama, Trump is delaying a decision on joining Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program for up to two weeks, torn between the risks of chaos and the faint hope of negotiations.
Israel kicked off its assault on Iran last week, targeting key nuclear sites and stirring urgent debates within the Trump administration. The president, according to sources close to the White House, has privately voiced dread over Iran morphing into “another Libya,” a caution he expressed even before the strikes began.
Libya’s shadow looms large
Trump’s fixation on Libya isn’t just idle chatter; it’s a pointed reference to the anarchy that followed the 2011 U.S. and NATO intervention, which toppled Muammar Gaddafi. That country’s spiral into warlord rule, extremism, and economic collapse — complete with slave markets and mass migration — serves as a grim warning. Turns out, toppling regimes without a plan can unleash a Pandora’s box of misery.
“Trump doesn’t want it to turn into Libya,” an insider confided, echoing the president’s unease. But isn’t it ironic that the same folks pushing for strikes often forget how quickly “limited action” becomes a decade-long mess? Libya’s failed democratic experiment is the ghost at this geopolitical feast.
The delay in Trump’s decision, as White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Thursday, hinges on the slim chance of talks with Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is set to meet European counterparts in Geneva on Friday, though Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is notably absent, pursuing separate channels. It’s a diplomatic tightrope, and one wonders if words can outpace warplanes.
Negotiations or bombs: A tough call
Leavitt framed the pause as strategic, noting a “substantial chance” of negotiations influencing Trump’s next move. But let’s be real — hoping for a deal with a regime enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels might be more wishful thinking than hard-nosed policy. Still, Trump’s apparent preference for dialogue over destruction is a refreshing change of pace.
“He’d rather have a deal,” a source near the White House revealed to The Post. That’s a noble aim, but with Israel’s defense minister labeling Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei the “modern Hitler” on Thursday, the temperature is hardly set for tea and treaties. Restraint might be Trump’s play, but the clock is ticking.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doubled down the same day, claiming his forces could independently obliterate Iran’s nuclear sites, including the deeply buried Fordow facility. Military experts, however, cast doubt on this bravado, noting even U.S.-supplied 2,000-pound bombs may not penetrate such fortifications. Swagger is one thing; reality underground is another.
Israel’s bold claims meet skepticism
Meanwhile, Trump’s inner circle is rattled by U.N. reports of Iran’s uranium enrichment far exceeding civilian needs, a violation of non-proliferation rules. CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly likened Iran’s program to a football team just a yard from the end zone, poised to weaponize. That’s a chilling metaphor for a regime under Khamenei’s 35-year iron grip.
A source lacking direct insight into Trump’s Libya comments suggested he might favor limited strikes on sites like Fordow and Natanz using massive 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs — firepower Israel lacks. “If the regime falls, then it’s not on Trump,” the source argued, distancing the president from any unintended collapse. Smart politics, perhaps, but chaos doesn’t care who started the fire.
Trump’s broader concerns echo failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, though Libya remains his cautionary tale of choice. Sources note he sees Libya’s fallout — post-Gaddafi bedlam and the chilling effect on negotiating with rogue states — as a dual lesson. Why rush into another intervention when history screams, “slow down”?
Weighing risks of unintended consequences
“We get somebody worse than Khamenei,” warned the same source, highlighting the gamble of regime change by accident. It’s a sobering thought: destabilizing Iran could birth a hydra of new threats, from terrorism to radioactive contamination, as another insider cautioned. Sometimes, the devil you know is the safer bet.
Leavitt emphasized Trump’s guiding star: preventing Iran from going nuclear while fostering Middle East stability. “The president’s top priority right now is to ensure that Iran cannot attain a nuclear weapon,” she affirmed. It’s a mission conservatives can rally behind, even if the path — be it bombs or backchannels — remains murky.
In the end, Trump is juggling input from world leaders, advisors, and the American public, as Leavitt noted at Thursday’s briefing. His hesitation isn’t weakness; it’s a nod to the hard truth that actions have consequences, often uglier than anticipated. For once, a pause might be the most powerful weapon in the arsenal.
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Author: Mae Slater
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