‘JCPOA 2’? After 3rd round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, a reality check

After the third day of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations concluded last Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the discussions as “serious,” though marked by significant obstacles. He cautiously expressed hope for progress.

The Iranian regime continues to assert its “inalienable right” to enrich uranium on its own soil and refuses to export its enriched stockpiles. In contrast, the United States insists on limiting Iran’s enrichment activities and including the country’s missile program in the negotiations – a demand Tehran has declared a non-negotiable red line.

As the Iranian daily Etemad, known for its proximity to the regime, reported: “Evidence suggests that the United States has stepped back from its original demand for the complete dismantling of Iran’s enrichment program and is now prepared to settle for restrictions. According to observers, this could pave the way for a new deal – a so-called JCPOA 2.”

Any perceived change in the regime’s behavior is an illusion

While a genuine shift in the regime’s behavior would be a welcome step toward peace, such expectations are more illusion than reality.

After all, just weeks ago, on Feb. 3, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared: “Negotiation is neither wise, nor dignified, nor intelligent.”

Despite that, he reluctantly agreed to the talks – not from a position of strength, but after commanders of the pro-regime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, as well as senior security officials warned him that a military strike on nuclear facilities could trigger a national uprising. Such an event, they cautioned, could be seized upon by the Resistance Units, who are prepared to lead such a movement toward the regime’s overthrow.

In short, the regime was driven to the negotiating table not by choice, but by fear.

A half century of broken promises

Over the past 46 years, the Iranian regime has consistently failed to uphold its international obligations. After the Iranian Resistance revealed the existence of secret nuclear sites in 2002, Khamenei reluctantly agreed to suspend enrichment and seal certain nuclear facilities. However, just one year later, the seals were broken, and nuclear activity resumed – and even expanded.

Hassan Rouhani, who would later serve two terms as president, recalled the events of that time:
“In 2004, IAEA inspectors took samples at several of our sites and reported enrichment levels as high as 80 percent. That’s when the nuclear file was handed over to me.”

Negotiations as a tool of deception

For more than four decades, the Iranian regime has used negotiations as a tool to buy time – all while quietly advancing its weapons program and executing destabilizing policies across the region.

The only true solution to the crisis in Iran – and to lasting peace in the Middle East – is the overthrow of the regime by the Iranian people themselves, a goal supported by a broad segment of society.

But this change will not happen on its own. International pressure, while important, is not enough. What is also required is an organized resistance and a network of forces on the ground.

That role today is fulfilled by the Resistance Units, affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran or PMOI – a courageous and defiant movement in which women play a leading role, standing up to one of the world’s most misogynistic regimes.

The theocracy at its weakest point

Today, the Iranian regime is at its most vulnerable point in history, a convergence of factors pushing it to the edge:

• Severe economic collapse
• Entrenched and widespread corruption
• The collapse of its regional “strategic depth,” particularly in Syria

In response, the regime has intensified its use of repression – including widespread political executions – to maintain control.

Over the last four decades, more than 120,000 political prisoners have been executed – an unparalleled crime in the modern era.

A democratic alternative

The National Council of Resistance of Iran, or NCRI, has laid out a vision for the country’s future through its Ten-Point Plan. This vision includes:

• A non-nuclear Iran
• An end to the death penalty
• Separation of religion and state
• Full gender equality

Crucially, the NCRI is not seeking power for itself. Its mission is to return sovereignty to the people of Iran through free and fair elections.

The urgency of a firm policy

The root cause of many Western policy failures in dealing with Iran over the past four decades has been the systematic dismissal of Iran’s organized, internal democratic resistance.

A firm and realistic strategy, therefore, must now include:

• Activating the U.N. “snapback” mechanism to fully reinstate the six former Security Council resolutions and dismantle the regime’s nuclear program
• Referring the regime to Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter due to its threats to international peace and security
• Recognizing the Iranian people’s right to resist and supporting the Resistance units in their efforts to confront and dismantle the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ grip on power.