Stefanik gains momentum as potential candidate in NY gubernatorial race

Rep. Elise Stefanik, a prominent Republican from New York, is emerging as a potential strong contender in her home state’s governor’s race, garnering noticeable backing and significant momentum.

A recent poll conducted by GrayHouse showcases Stefanik in the lead for the Republican primary, highlighting her as a viable challenge to current Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul in the upcoming 2026 election, as Breitbart reports.

Stefanik’s potential candidacy is fueled by her favorable polling numbers and strong backing within her party. The GrayHouse poll held from April 22-24, surveyed 826 registered voters across New York, reflecting a considerable lead for Stefanik in the Republican primary race.

The lawmaker secured support from 44% of surveyed voters, notably keeping a significant lead over Republicans such as Rep. Mike Lawler and Bruce Blakeman. The poll also reported that 44% of voters remained undecided, highlighting a potential battleground in the primary election.

Stefanik sees growing popularity

In terms of favorability, Stefanik is well-received among Republican voters, with a net favorability of +47. This compares favorably to Lawler’s +28 and Blakeman’s +18. Her influence appears to extend beyond the party lines, as indicated by a net favorability rating of +10 among Independents. Lawler and Blakeman trail behind her in this demographic as well, with a +2 and -1 rating, respectively.

Lawler, having made an appearance on Fox Business, stated he plans to reach a decision on his potential gubernatorial candidacy by June. In the interview, Lawler expressed that his decision would ultimately hinge on whether “there’s a pathway to win.”

Voters show desire for change

The GrayHouse poll also underscores a potential opportunity for Republican candidates to challenge the incumbent. A substantial 61% of those surveyed believe it is time for a new governor to step into office. Conversely, only 18% of voters indicated they might re-elect Hochul, with a small 9% expressing definitive support for her reelection.

Stefanik’s strong showing in the polls suggests she could provide a formidable challenge in the general election. If elections were held today, 40% of respondents would support Stefanik against Hochul’s 46%, with 14% undecided. Alternately, in a scenario against Lawler, Hochul would have 45% support compared to Lawler’s 38%, with 18% undecided. In a race against Blakeman, Hochul maintains a lead with 44% over Blakeman’s 36%, and 20% of voters are yet undecided.

Hochul’s mixed approval record

Hochul’s current standing among New Yorkers presents a mixed picture. Her job approval rating is reported at a net-18, with 36% of voters expressing approval compared to a 55% disapproval rate. However, a recent Siena College poll conducted between April 14-16, 2025, revealed a marginal improvement in her favorability, as it edged up from 40-50% in March to 44-43% in April.

Amid these dynamics, Stefanik’s possible entry into the governor’s race is creating ripples. According to NBC News, Stefanik is indeed seriously contemplating running for governor, bolstered by encouragement from influential figures, including New York Republicans, associates linked to President Donald Trump, and prominent GOP donors.

Speculation grows about next steps

Such support for Stefanik comes in the context of a changing political landscape within New York, and the prospects of a competitive gubernatorial race have piqued interest across political circles. With Republican figures like Stefanik potentially in the mix, strategies and campaigns are likely to reflect an intense and strategic push as the election approaches.

Stefanik’s positioning as a Republican frontrunner in New York is a testament to her political influence and the sentiment that a shift in the governor’s office might be on the horizon. As both major parties gear up for the 2026 race, the landscape is set for closely watched developments in campaigns across the state.

In summary, Elise Stefanik’s strong performance in recent Republican polls and her potential candidacy underscore the evolving dynamics of New York’s political scene. The uncertainty and voter sentiment towards change hold significant implications for Gov. Kathy Hochul’s potential re-election in 2026.