AOC for President?

As unimaginable as it may seem, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is being mentioned as a possible Democrat presidential candidate in 2028.  That is almost as far fetched as Donald Trump running and winning in 2016 – and 2024. 

Of course, it is far too early to seriously speculate, but the potential contenders are already jockeying for position – so even early speculation is appropriate.

The idea of AOC as a viable candidate is gaining credibility from a number of developments.  She is drawing large crowds along with socialist curmudgeon Bernie Sanders in their joint “Fighting Oligarchy” rallies – and I doubt it is threadbare Sanders who is the primary draw. 

AOC is polling well – even if it is partially due to the base of the Democratic Party shrinking.  It just gives the more radical elements in the party greater influence.  It is increasingly clear that the more radical wing of the Party is dominant at the moment.

When asked who Democrat voters see as the leader of the Party, AOC comes up in the number one or number two position.  In horse race polls, she beats out such former favorites as former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker and others.  She seems to be seriously in contention at this point.  You can already purchase various “AOC for President” paraphernalia on Amazon.

Polling guru Nate Silver currently sees AOC as the odds-on favorite – someone he sees as “the most likely” Democrat standard bearer.  Although his crystal ball appears to have clouded up in recent years.

Even FOX News sees potential for AOC because of her popularity with the left-wing press.  Like Trump, she can command the media spotlight at will.  They find her fascinating.  According to FOX, “… the media is kind of obsessed with her, and they are going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process.”

AOC could enhance her chances by heading to the Senate over the politically wounded body of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.  Some polls suggest she would likely beat him in a primary.  If you think two years in the Senate is not enough time to move up to the Oval Office – think Barack Obama.

Despite all the attention AOC is receiving at this moment, she has a lot of very high hurdles to overcome in the next three years – perhaps even barriers.  She is a figure of the extreme left – and would not be considered if the Democrat base had not shifted so far to the left.

AOC may be popular among the voters in her shrunken, more radical Democratic Party, but too far to the left for the general electorate.  She may be another George McGovern.  The uber liberal South Dakota senator who won the Democratic nomination in 1972 because the Party shifted to the left.  But he was too far left for most voters, and consequently, he handed the Watergate-entangled Richard Nixon a 49-state landslide victory.

Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2024 suggests that the American public is still right of center – and will be for the foreseeable future.

AOC understands the problem.  In her recent public appearances, she is no longer pounding the drum for her hitherto far left agenda.  No more talk of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.  She no longer talks of defunding the police – or eliminating Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE).  She appears to have abandoned some of the more onerous aspects of the Green New Deal.

Yes … it is hard to imagine AOC being a serious contender for the democratic presidential nomination in 2028, but politics is a strange business.  Ironically, Trump may be AOC’s best example of an improbable – seemingly impossible — candidate taking home the victory.  However, that bit of political lightning is not likely to strike twice.

So, there ‘tis.

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