Democrats Less Popular Than Trump

Not surprisingly, unleashing a set of wildly unpopular policies that has, among other things, destroyed billions of dollars worth of retirement savings, has had a negative impact on President Trump’s approval. More surprisingly, frustrations about the failure to stop Trump—and internal disagreements over how best to respond to him—have seemingly hurt Democrats even more.

Pew Research Center (“Trump’s Job Rating Drops, Key Policies Draw Majority Disapproval as He Nears 100 Days“):

With President Donald Trump’s second term approaching its 100-day mark, 40% of Americans approve of how he’s handling the job – a decline of 7 percentage points from February.

And, even as Trump continues to receive high marks from his strongest supporters, several of his key policy actions are viewed more negatively than positively by the public:

• 59% of Americans disapprove of the administration’s tariff increases, while 39% approve.
• 55% disapprove of the cuts the administration is making to federal departments and agencies, while 44% approve.

Trump’s use of executive authority also comes in for criticism: 51% of U.S. adults say he is setting too much policy via executive order. Far smaller shares say he is doing about the right amount (27%) or too little (5%) through executive orders.

With many of the administration’s actions facing legal challenges in federal courts, there is widespread – largely bipartisan – sentiment that the administration would have to end an action if a federal court deemed it illegal.

• 78% say the Trump administration should have to follow a federal court’s ruling, rising to 88% if the Supreme Court were to issue the ruling.
• 91% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans say the administration would need to stop an action if a federal court ruled it illegal, rising to 95% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans for a Supreme Court ruling.

Gallup (“Trump’s First-Quarter Approval Rating Below Average, at 45%“):

President Donald Trump is closing out the first quarter of his second term in office with an average 45% job approval rating, higher than the 41% earned in his first term but well below all other post-World War II presidents elected in the U.S. The average first-quarter rating for all presidents elected from 1952 to 2020 is 60%.

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Trump’s first-quarter average for his second term includes his latest 44% approval rating, from an April 1-14 poll, with 53% of Americans currently disapproving of the way he is handling his job. This is in line with the previous three readings during his second term. Of these, his highest individual approval rating this year was the first one — 47% in January.

Partisans’ ratings of Trump are stable, with 90% of Republicans and 4% of Democrats expressing approval of the president’s job performance. Independents’ current 37% approval has been steady since February but is nine percentage points lower than their inaugural rating of Trump.

The latest poll was conducted during a period of economic turbulence in the U.S. as positive employment and gross domestic product reports in early April were overshadowed by Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2. Those tariffs triggered a sharp stock market decline. ​Despite a temporary 90-day pause on some tariffs by Trump on April 9 and the easing of other terms since then, market instability has persisted. Some economists warn of a potential recession, citing declining consumer confidence, volatile markets and signs of slowing growth.

NYT (“Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Falling Steadily, Polling Average Shows“):

President Trump’s job approval rating has fallen steadily during his first three months in office, according to a New York Times average of polling.

Mr. Trump’s approval rating has sunk to about 45 percent, down from 52 percent one week after he took office. Around half of the country now disapproves of his performance, the polling shows.

American presidents typically enter office with a groundswell of support that wanes over time. But Mr. Trump’s approval has been dropping slightly faster than that of his predecessors.

Mr. Trump started his term with the second-lowest approval rating for a president in modern history. The only recent president to have started in a worse position was Mr. Trump the first time he took office.

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Mr. Trump is following through on many of the promises he made as a candidate, but even some supporters have registered concerns about some of his actions. In particular, the sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries have rankled allies and adversaries. The trade war plunged global economic markets into turmoil, before Mr. Trump paused the tariffs for 90 days, citing talks with other countries about new trade deals.

We’re having problems uploading images at the moment but trendline at RealClearPolitics is clear: after a few weeks of having higher approval than disapproval, Trump has been underwater since March 11.

I would hold out more hope that this would lead to a reining in but, alas, the polls also show another consistent trend: Trump’s support remains sky high among Republicans. Moreover, Democrats are taking more heat than Republicans for the state of affairs.

Pew:

The GOP is viewed more favorably than the Democratic Party, a shift from recent years. Views of the Republican Party have trended more positive over the last year, and 43% now have a favorable view. Views of the Democratic Party are little changed over the last few years, with 38% now expressing a favorable view.

Gallup:

Partisans’ ratings of Trump are stable, with 90% of Republicans and 4% of Democrats expressing approval of the president’s job performance. Independents’ current 37% approval has been steady since February but is nine percentage points lower than their inaugural rating of Trump.

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Amid the economic uncertainty in April, 44% of U.S. adults say they have confidence in Trump to recommend or do the right thing for the economy, including 30% with “a great deal” of confidence and 14% with “a fair amount.” Meanwhile, a majority of Americans indicate they have either “only a little” confidence in the president (11%) or “almost none” (44%).

Trust in the economic judgment of all other U.S. leaders rated in the poll is weaker than for Trump, with fewer than four in 10 Americans saying they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in the Republican leaders in Congress in general (39%), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (37%), Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (36%) and Senate Republican Leader John Thune (33%).

Public confidence in U.S. Democratic leaders’ economic handling is even lower, including for House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (30%), Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (25%) and the Democratic leaders in Congress in general (25%).

One presumes that, so long as Republicans remain enthusiastic, Trump will be undaunted.

That the state of affairs is hurting Democrats more than Republicans, who control the White House and have slim majorities in both Houses of Congress, seems incongruous. But I presume it’s because Democrats are frustrated with the inability of their leaders to stop Trump.

The Atlantic’s John Hendrickson (“What the Democratic Infighting Reveals“) sees something broader happening.

The phrase in disarray has dogged the Democratic Party for years, but what’s happening now is something more profound and consequential. As Donald Trump approaches the 100th day of his second term, Democrats appear to lack a shared understanding of the depth of their situation—never mind how to address it.

Today’s Democratic infighting isn’t merely about how to win in 2026 or 2028. Rather, it’s an asymmetrical conversation about priorities. Should Democrats focus on fighting Trump’s autocratic actions and on pushing harder than ever to ensure the rights of vulnerable communities? Or should they tack to the middle to woo disillusioned Trump voters? Meanwhile, Democrats also need to figure out how to serve voters in their own base who are fed up with the party’s ineffectiveness. A recent Gallup poll was, in a word, abysmal, finding that only 25 percent of respondents had confidence in Democratic congressional leaders—an all-time low.

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While Trump keeps rolling back LGBTQ rights, certain Democrats appear to view the fight for transgender liberties, for example, as merely a losing campaign issue and relic of the mid-2010s culture war. In the eyes of some Democrats, the obligation to push back against Trumpism seems sublimated to the more practical goals of winning elections and securing majorities. But in trying to woo disaffected Trump voters, they may be disaffecting loyal Democratic voters who fear the party is abandoning important issues.

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What all this Democratic infighting has ultimately revealed is that the party has entered its “post” era. Democrats are post-Biden, post-Harris, post-Obama. Some would like to believe that the party is alternatively post-Sanders or post-Carville. But another way to look at it is that Democrats have entered a “pre” era. The lack of clear direction may not instill much confidence among Democratic voters, but open-endedness could be an opportunity for the party. The next leader may soon step up. But for that leader to rise, everyone needs to get out of one another’s way.

That the party is having a fight over its future is likely healthy for the long term. But it puts it on a back foot in trying to deal with the present moment.

Like it or not, Donald Trump has been the central figure in American politics for a decade now. His infamous ride down the escalator at his eponymous tower to announce his run for the 2016 Republican nomination was June 16, 2015. Hardly a day has gone by since—including during the four-year presidency of Joe Biden—when Trump wasn’t the most prominent figure in political news coverage.

Democrats have had conflicting messages. On the one hand, Trump is an existential threat to American democracy and it is everyone’s duty to rally against him. On the other hand, much of the leadership remains committed to pushing the envelope on progressive policies that make it harder to attract the support of the sort of people who voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney but find Trump repugnant.

It would seem intuitive that the mere existence of Trump, the most unpopular President ever, as the leader of the opposition would render the only viable alternative—the Democratic Party—popular. But it hasn’t worked out that way.

While the James Carvilles of the world are urging the party to become a more centrist, catch-all party, the trend is decidedly in the other direction. As the Nancy Pelosis and Dick Durbins fade into retirement, they’ll naturally be replaced by significantly younger, more progressive politicians. That’ll be more satisfying for most of the nominating electorate but a less effective counter to MAGA extremism.