Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Yesterday afternoon, President Biden announced a deal had been brokered to end the war in Lebanon.

Today, I have some good news to report from the Middle East.  I just spoke with the prime minister of Israel and Lebanon, and I’m pleased to announce that their governments have accepted the United States’ proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. 

And I want to thank President Macron of France for his partnership in reaching this moment. 

For nearly 14 months, a deadly conflict raged across the border that separates Israel and Lebanon — a conflict that began the day after the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel.  Hours later, at 2:00 a.m. in the morning, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations backed by Iran attacked Israel in support of Hamas.  

Let’s be clear: Israel did not launch this war.  The Lebanese people did not seek that war either, nor did the United States. 

Over the past year, including in the days immediately ta- — following October the 7th, I directed the U.S. military to flow assets and capabilities into the region, including aircraft carriers, fighter squadrons, and sophisticated air defense battery to defend Israel and deter our common enemy at critical moments.  

Since the war with Hezbollah began, over 70,000 Israelis have been forced to live in refugee — li- — live as refugees in their own country, helplessly watching their homes, their businesses, their communities as they were bombarded and destroyed.  And over 300,000 Lebanese people have also been forced to live as refugees in their own country in a war imposed on them by Hezbollah. 

All told, this has been the deadliest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in decades.  

How many of Hezbollah’s senior leaders are dead, including its longtime leader Nasrallah?  And Israel has — and Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon as well, including miles of sophisticated tunnels, which were prepared for an October 7th-style terrorist attack in northern Israel.  

But lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield.  And that’s why I’ve directed my team to work with the governments of Israel and Lebanon to forge a ceasefire to bring the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to a close.

Under the deal reached today, effective at 4:00 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end — will end.  This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. 

What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — will — I emphasize — will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again. 

Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and the State Security Forces will deploy and take control of their own territory once again.  Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt. 

And over the next 60 days, Israel will gradually withdraw its remaining forces and civilians — civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities and begin to rebuild their homes, their schools, their farms, their businesses, and their very lives. 

We’re determined this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence.  And so, the United States, with the full support of France and our other allies, has pledged to work with Israel and Lebanon to ensure that these arra- — this — this arrangement is fully implemented — the agreement totally implemented. 

You know, there will be no U.S. troops deployed in southern Lebanon.  This is consistent with my commitment to the American people to not put U.S. troops in combat in this conflict. 

Instead, we, along with France and others, will provide the necessary assistance to make sure this deal is implemented fully and effectively.  

Let us — let me be clear: If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defense consistent with international law, just like any country when facing a terrorist group pledged to that country’s destruction. 

Note that the above is the official White House transcription.

AP‘s Adam Geller (“What to know about the ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah“):

Under the deal, thousands of Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers are to deploy to the region south of the Litani River. An international panel lead by the U.S. would monitor compliance by all sides. Biden said the deal “was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”

Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations, but Lebanese officials rejected writing that into the proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the military would strike Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, does not enforce the deal.

Hezbollah indicated it would give the ceasefire pact a chance, but one of the group’s leaders said the group’s support for the deal hinged on clarity that Israel would not renew its attacks.

“After reviewing the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a match between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials,” Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told the Qatari satellite news network Al Jazeera.

“We want an end to the aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the state” of Lebanon, he said.

[…]

After months of cross-border bombings, Israel can claim major victories, including the killing of Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, most of his senior commanders and the destruction of extensive militant infrastructure.

A complex attack in September involving the explosion of hundreds of walkie-talkies and pagers used by Hezbollah was widely attributed to Israel, signaling a remarkable penetration of the militant group.

The damage inflicted on Hezbollah has hit not only in its ranks, but the reputation it built by fighting Israel to a stalemate in the 2006 war. Still, its fighters managed to put up heavy resistance on the ground, slowing Israel’s advance while continuing to fire scores of rockets, missiles and drones across the border each day.

The ceasefire offers relief to both sides, giving Israel’s overstretched army a break and allowing Hezbollah leaders to tout the group’s effectiveness in holding their ground despite Israel’s massive advantage in weaponry. But the group is likely to face a reckoning, with many Lebanese accusing it of tying their country’s fate to Gaza’s at the service of key ally Iran, inflicting great damage on a Lebanese economy that was already in grave condition.

WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen analyzes “The Impossible Mission to Enforce an Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire.”

For nearly two decades, thousands of United Nations peacekeepers have been helpless to stop the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah from rearming along Israel’s border since the two sides’ previous war.

Now that Israel and Hezbollah have come to a cease-fire ending a year of fighting, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or Unifil, is again at the center of efforts to keep the peace but still lacks the capability to enforce a buffer zone between the parties, analysts said.

The deal agreed to on Tuesday includes a 60-day implementation period to allow the Israeli military to withdraw and for the Lebanese military to secure the border area and prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing an armed presence there, according to Lebanese officials. An international committee including U.N. peacekeepers would monitor compliance, they said.

But neither the Lebanese military nor U.N. forces could do much to keep Hezbollah from building up fighting positions in southern Lebanon and firing rockets across the border, while Israel responded with military overflights and occasional live fire. The culmination was a year of fighting that began after another Iran-backed militant group, Hamas, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, from the Gaza Strip. The U.N. peacekeepers have mostly sheltered in their bases after repeatedly coming under fire from both sides.

As a result, Israel insists on the freedom to strike at Hezbollah even after a cease-fire if it believes the U.S.-designated terrorist group poses a threat. An Israeli official said Israel would ensure its own safety.

“We’re not talking about the dissolution of Unifil but also won’t place the future security of northern Israel in Unifil’s hand,” the official said. “We’re not going back to Oct. 6.”

Unifil has had what its defenders say was an impossible mandate since 1978, when Israel invaded Lebanon after a Palestinian militant attack on a bus in central Israel, killing 38 civilians, including 13 children. Unifil’s job was to monitor the Israeli military’s withdrawal from Lebanon and to help the Lebanese government maintain security in the country’s restive south.

But by 1982, Israel was back fighting in Lebanon. After an Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, Unifil’s job included monitoring Hezbollah’s activities in southern Lebanon and aiding the Lebanese military’s efforts under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.

Unifil reports possible violations to the Lebanese army and Israel, which are responsible for correcting the behavior, and to the U.N. secretary-general who relays the findings regularly to the Security Council. Lebanon’s army, however, is underfunded and outgunned by Iran-backed Hezbollah, and there is little in the resolution to force either party into line.

Resolution 1701 was almost immediately violated, and Unifil’s task has grown more difficult over the years. Unifil—which at times conducted some 10,000 patrols a month—increasingly complained that its peacekeepers were prevented from moving around freely and inspecting suspicious locations. It is prevented from entering private property and detaining civilians without permission from Lebanese authorities.

Peacekeepers have complained over the years about an increasingly hostile environment and intimidation by Hezbollah and people in the south, who occasionally accuse them of spying for Israel and attack them.

As the report documents, there have been numerous resurgences of the conflict since. There’s little reason to hope there won’t be another. But there have been frequent stretches of a decade of more of relative peace in between; that’s not nothing.

Biden expressed optimism in his speech that this agreement will set the tone for one ending the war in Gaza.

And just as the Lebanese people deserve a future of security and prosperity, so do the people of Gaza.  They too deserve an end to the fighting and displacement. 

The people of Gaza have been through hell.  Their word — their world is absolutely shattered.  Far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much.  And Hamas has refused, for months and months, to negotiate a good-faith ceasefire and a hostage deal.  

And so, now Hamas has a choice to make.  Their only way out is to release the hostages, including American citizens which they hold, and, in the process, bring an end to the fighting, which would make possible a surge of humanitarian li- — relief.  

Over the coming days, the United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza with the hostages released and the end to the war without Hamas in power — that it becomes possible.  

As for the broader Middle East region, today’s announcement brings us closer to realizing the affirmative agenda that I’ve been pushing forward during my entire presidency: a vision for the future of the Middle East where it’s at peace and prosperous and integrated across borders; a future where Palestinians have a state of their own, one that fulfills its people’s legitimate aspirations and one that cannot threaten Israel or harbor terrorist groups with backing from Iran; a future where Israelis and Palestinians enjoy equal measures of security, prosperity, and — yes — dignity. 

To that end, the United States remains prepared to conclude a set of historic deals with Saudi Arabia to include a security pact and economic assurances together with a credible pathway for establishing a Palestinian state and the full — the full normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel — a desire they both have. 

I believe this agenda remains possible.  And in my remaining time in office, I will work tirelessly to advance this vision of — for an integrated, secure, and prosperous region, all of which — all of which strengthens America’s national security.  

Which led to a rather testy exchange in the very short Q&A:

Q    Mr. President, will you get a ceasefire in Gaza before leaving office? 

THE PRESIDENT:  You ask me how I get a ceasefire in — I think so.  I’m hoping.  I’m praying.

Q    How is this push any different from the previous ones?

THE PRESIDENT:  If you don’t see that, you shouldn’t be reporting.  It’s a lot different.

NYT Jerusalem bureau chief Patrick Kingsley (“Will Lebanon Deal Break Gaza Deadlock? Experts Doubt It“):

Buoyant after helping to forge a cease-fire in Lebanon, President Biden has declared that the deal could build momentum toward a similar breakthrough in Gaza.

But that assessment is premature, analysts said on Wednesday, because Israel and Hamas are much further from a deal in Gaza than Israel and Hezbollah were in Lebanon.

The truce in Lebanon was possible in part because Hezbollah — weakened by months of assassinations and battlefield losses — had lost its leverage at the negotiating table. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could afford to compromise because a deal in Lebanon would not significantly weaken his grip on power at home.

A breakthrough in Gaza is harder to achieve because Hamas still holds roughly 100 hostages, a significant trump card that allows the Palestinian group to maintain its hard-line negotiating position. Secondly, Mr. Netanyahu cannot compromise with Hamas because doing so might collapse his ruling coalition, forcing early elections.

Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies, many of whom hope to settle Gaza with Jewish civilians after the war, have threatened to abandon his alliance if the conflict there ends without Hamas’s complete defeat. When it came to Lebanon, Mr. Netanyahu was under less domestic pressure to deliver a knockout blow to Hezbollah, even if many Israelis remained deeply concerned about the long-term threat of the group.

“The Lebanon deal happened because Netanyahu wanted it and Hezbollah needed it — and because it wasn’t a deal breaker for Netanyahu’s coalition,” said Aaron David Miller, an American analyst and former negotiator in previous Mideast peace talks. “The Gaza deal is different,” he said.

Indeed, the notion that the two conflicts are linked is rather odd. The only real connection is that Hezbollah was dividing Israeli military attention, thus indirectly supporting Hamas. While this removal does indeed weaken Hamas’ position, it strengthens Israel’s by the same measure.

In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu suggested that Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the fight might isolate its ally Hamas and force the group to also back down.

“Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a recorded speech. “With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.”

But Palestinian analysts said that Hamas, having already weathered many serious setbacks over the past year, was unlikely to suddenly give up the hostages or relinquish power in Gaza. Though Hamas’s leadership has been decimated and ordinary Gazans yearn for an end to the suffering, the group’s remaining leaders are holding out for a deal that would allow the group to survive the war intact.

To that end, Hamas is expected to continue to push for an arrangement in which Israel permanently withdraws from Gaza, allowing the group to reestablish full control in the enclave.

“I really do not think the cease-fire in Lebanon will have any impact on Gaza,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist displaced by the war. “There is no light at the end of the black tunnel for Gaza.”

I strongly suspect he’s right.