Jeffrey Blehar of National Review Online challenges the notion that the 2024 electoral outcome is already determined.
Despite the knife’s-edge closeness of the polls, the race now is being cast as Donald Trump’s to lose — and lose it he may yet. The increasing cicada-like thrum of cable and online commentary tells you all you need to know: Right now most everyone at least believes that Trump is a week away from pulling off the full Grover — being reelected to the presidency after a loss and four years out of office.
This is not a belief confined merely to the conservative-leaning world of analysis and commentary. It is written all over the faces of mainstream-media commentators, manifest in the pixels of anonymous, panicked social-media denizens, and empirically evident in the behavior of both campaigns. Kamala Harris recently brought in Michelle Obama to scold male voters with the message that if they didn’t support Harris they were betraying all women, everywhere. Meanwhile Trump is rallying in Democratic strongholds like California and New York to boost the popular vote and juice an anticipated House majority. You can accuse the Trump campaign of folly or falsely projecting confidence, yes — but only if you also acknowledge that, by the same token, the Harris campaign is betraying its self-perception of weakness.
So maybe I am senseless, because I’m reflexively averse to this sort of framing. First of all, nothing has been decided yet; secondarily, unlike most of you young whippersnappers, I’m old enough to remember November 2022. A path to a Harris victory is at least plausible given the current polling numbers and her fading fortunes in the Sun Belt states: There are far fewer minority voters and more educated, white middle-class voters in the blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin than in the southern and southwestern states or, for that matter, in California and New York. So even though Trump may make significant strides in the minority vote, those voters live in the wrong places.
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Author: Mitch Kokai
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