As Israel decides how to respond to the 180 ballistic missiles fired from Iran last week, the Iranian nuclear weapons programme is centred in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s gunsights. The West, through subtle diplomacy – and no doubt even subtler spycraft – has thus far prevented the ayatollahs from gaining the ultimate weapon to subjugate the Israeli state and the West. Until October 7 2023, the Middle Eastern melting pot of hate and distrust has simmered just below critical, but it is now set to explode.
Recent warnings by Ken McCallum, head of MI5, of sabotage and covert attacks from Russian and Iranian secret services, should not be delinked from what is happening in Tehran’s WMD programme. Russian and Iranian agents will no doubt be looking for vulnerabilities in our own nuclear power stations and other critical national infrastructure, but this will also be at the forefront of MI5 and MI6 operations.
Both Russia and Iran have a pathological hatred of all things British, and our new government must concentrate on our security.
It must learn to place defence above any desire to appease the hard Left and the dinner party woke by giving away – with undue haste – everything to do with our past, like the strategically important Chagos Islands: and most especially not to supporters of our adversaries like China.
There is much talk about the existential threat to the Israeli state of the war with Iran. Less discussed is the existential threat to the rule of the ayatollahs if they cannot protect Iran from Israeli attack, which seems increasingly likely.
The simmering resentment against the tyrannical rule of the mullahs and most especially the suppression of women and youth culture, could ignite into a full-scale popular revolution. This almost happened recently, after hundreds of females were mysteriously poisoned and draconian rules over face coverings met with widespread protests.
Iran has two uranium mines and processing facilities, including three known uranium enrichment plants. Combined with its ballistic missile capabilities, it has all the ingredients for a viable nuclear weapon capable of striking Israel and the West.
Though heavily scrutinised by the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has been in the nuclear arena since the 1950s. In recent years it has managed to avoid the closest scrutiny, especially when then president Trump withdrew his support for the Iran nuclear deal. It is highly possible that Putin, in return for supplies of weapons, may have given nuclear know-how to Iran, most especially as he wants Western eyes on the Middle East and not his misadventure in Eastern Europe.
However, with 95 per cent of Iranian missiles fired at Israel so far failing to reach their target, there is huge doubt that a nuclear tipped one would fare any differently. More likely it would be destroyed above one of a number of Arab states. This would suit the ayatollahs as another method to ignite the Middle East. Hence the Iranian nuclear programme must be neutralised.
It’s also important not to make the mistake of thinking that Iran is the same as Russia. Almost continuous nuclear bluster since Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, followed by a complete lack of action, may be lulling some in the West into underestimating the potential for use of an Iranian nuclear weapon.
This would be unwise. Iran’s involvement in the Hamas atrocities of October 7 2023 should make even the most blinkered and inexperienced politicians realise that for the ayatollahs to press the “red button” against Israel would not take much soul searching in Tehran. The mullahs see the destruction of Israel as their god-given task.
Many of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are as corrupt and as evil as their allies in Moscow, but with absolutely no regard for the second and third order implications of an Iranian nuclear strike. That could lead to a global nuclear conflict, as Israel would no doubt launch its own nuclear weapons towards Iran in return.
Israel undoubtedly has nukes at the moment and Iran does not. This is a nuclear deterrence equilibrium that Biden and Starmer would do well to maintain. The ayatollahs are in an Israeli nuclear headlock and they know it: the timid West, apparently including the outgoing and shattered US president, seems more persuaded by Tehran than Jerusalem.
The whole planet wants a ceasefire and peace in the Middle East and the only obvious route to it today seems to be longer-term elimination of Iran’s nuclear capability. This is in the grasp of Israeli missiles and fighter jets. Iran without its terror proxies and nuclear weapons programme is a diminishing threat to the planet, which is in everybody’s interests.
Even if Biden and Starmer are not prepared to unshackle Ukraine against Russia, they must surely see the benefits of allowing Israel to neutralise the Iranian nuclear programme – and so bring the world back from the precipice of apocalypse for the foreseeable future.
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Author: Patriotman
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