So far, has this conference changed anyone’s mind?

Ah, Conference. As I strutted my stuff at the ConservativeHome silent disco yesterday – an unqualified triumph, and the latest delivered by our Events team – I reflected on what a remarkable jamboree it has been so far. We are all surprisingly chipper for a party that has just suffered an unprecedented defeat, lost two-thirds of its MPs, and will be out of office for at least five years.

Perhaps the scale of July 4^th hasn’t yet sunk in. Perhaps, numbed by the warm wine, free tat, and copious panels, speeches, and receptions, our collective horror at our plight has yet to really manifest. Perhaps we are all relishing the Government’s travails with an “I told you so” almost grotesque satisfaction. Or perhaps we’re all just too distracted by leadership shenanigans.

Whether it knows it or not, Birmingham is playing host to one of the great conferences, a third in the trilogy of beauty pageants that stretch back to 1963 and 2005. The Magic Circle may have long since made way for the party membership in choosing our chiefs. But the objective of the multi-day merry-go-round is the same: to show your colleagues that you have members’ support.

So one looks to the attendees. They are bedecked in baseball caps and badges. Their conference passes are held up by lanyards displaying their allegiance to their chosen agent. They suggest in their choice of tote bag, fuzzy hand, or fake tan provider just who they are backing. The conference floor is a continual, ongoing opinion poll as to who the members want to win.

I say continual. There is one God, and its name is the ConservativeHome members’ survey. A straw poll taken in the Hyatt bar or a snapshot of merchandise taken on one’s camera phone cannot hope to beat our tried and tested approach of picking your brains. But wandering the corridors of the convention centre, one gets a sense of the energy of the whole affair.

How fixed are opinions? If you are going around in a Bobby J cap, it might be difficult for you to turn around and back A N Other candidate in the final round. Similarly, if you are quite litterly glowing with your support for Tugendhat, or swanning around with a Cleverly or Badenoch lanyard. But we cannot open a window into men’s souls. Outward appearance and vote may differ.

Nonetheless, in my experience, it seems to make quite a good guide. A few have yet to make up their minds. Many are waiting on exactly the combination of a final two that emerges. They have first preferences, second preferences, and Any-One-But-Them terrors. Whatever the arithmetic, their support tends to be set, and difficult to shift. We are a stern, unbending lot.

I searched largely in vain at panels, in bars, and on the dancefloor for anyone who had changed their mind on who they were backing. This reflects, I think, the odd stage of the contest we are at. Candidates are aiming to impress members. But it is MPs who still have two rounds of sifting to engage in. Popular support might be noted when voting, but isn’t essential.

Instead, the big question is whether Kemi Badenoch makes the final two. As our Deputy Editor has highlighted, there is a clear path, involving the supporters of Tom Tugendhat or James Cleverly uniting around the other, that can see the Shadow Housing Secretary kept out a final two with Robert Jenrick. Her job at this conference is to prevent that outcome. Is she succeeding?

Hmm. The story so far of the conference – despite her colleagues’ best efforts and my superb dance moves – remains her comments about maternity pay. We still have two days to shift narratives. Wednesday will see the candidates’ speeches, with memories of David Cameron in 2005 bubbling up. If she has struggled the first two days, she may triumph in the latter half.

But if you were Team Badenoch, you would be a little worried. Rival camps can nudge any attending MP on the arm, especially those wavering over her, and suggest that, if she won, Sunday’s row would be repeated in every media round for the next five years. That might be wholly unfair. But she did nothing to dispel the fears of those MPs hankering for a quieter life.

Where would her support go? To Jenrick, in the experience of a few known to me. Or towards whichever of the other two candidates which, one expects, is not knocked out. If Badenoch were not to make the final two, members might feel robbed of the chance to back her a second time. Her parliamentary colleagues would shrug, and suggest she should avoid Times Radio.

We have over a day of events still to enjoy, with plenty of time for this race to shift once again. For those here in Birmingham, ConservativeHome and her panels remain the primary providers of insight and entertainment available. For those still looking on from home, I can only say that you are missing out. Gentleman of England shall think themselves accursed, and all that.

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