Hochman Leads Gascon in LA DA Race by 24 Points

A new University of Southern California/California State University, Long Beach poll released on Monday found that former Assistant U.S.  Attorney General for the Tax Division and current General Counsel for Ross LLP Nathan Hochman continues to have a commanding lead over current Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon, leading by 24 points going into October.

Both Hochman and Gascon have been battling it out for the LA County DA race since March, when Gascon managed to get just over 25% of the vote in the primary, while Hochman barely beat out Assistant DA Jonathan Hatami 16% to 13% of the vote, or roughly 36,000 votes. However,  the negative backlash over Gascon’s reform-minded policies, which included reduced sentencing, death penalty opposition, and general discontent from many, quickly swung towards Hochman’s favor. With so many opposed to Gascon, Hochman quickly jumped into first in the race following the primary.

The first polls in April found that Hochman was up by 21 points over Gascon, with Hochman at 44%, Gascon at 23%, and 33% being undecided. With high crime concerns and a growing number victims and family members of victims directly blaming Gascon for crimes and the loss of loved ones because of his policies, things only grew worse for Gascon over the summer. Huge numbers of endorsements, many of whom previously backed Democratic candidates, suddenly began migrating towards Hochman. A UC Berkeley poll in August found that his lead was still just as high, coming in at 45%, with Gascon only getting 20%. 35% in the poll remained undecided.

With just over a month left in the election, the USC/CSU poll released on Monday confirmed that Hochman still had a major lead over Gascon with 44% in favor of Hochman, 20% Gascon and around 33% undecided. When broken down by Demographic, Hochman is shown to lead in pretty much every one. Both men (52.7%-21.6%) and women (28.7%-18.3%) favor Hochman, as does every age group. The critical above 60 voters  favor Hochman 48.6% to 22.4%, while the normally more progressive leaning under 40 voters still give Hochman the edge with a full 7 point difference in support over Gascon.

“The poll also shows that voters are concerned about crime, and those with crime concerns are more likely to support Hochman,” explained USC political science Professor Christian Grose.

24 points ahead of Gascon

Most distressingly for team Gascon is where support comes by race. Although his progressive and reformist policies were aimed at helping minority groups in the County, he isn’t winning over any. Asian voters support Hochman by a whopping 51% to 6%. That’s not a typo – 6%. Black voters are 12 points ahead for Hochman 39% to 24%, with Latino voters having a 33% to 14% gap in support. White voters round it out with 36% supporting Hochman and 28% supporting Gascon.

The only demographic Gascon currently leads is party affiliation. Hochman, a Republican turned Independent, is amazingly winning over the County-wide race despite being a very blue leaning county. Amongst GOP voters, Hochman is up 62% to just under 5%, with Independents supporting him 40% to 18%. Gascon leads Democrats, but only by the margin of error: 27% to 23%.

While many still are undecided in LA County, the sheer double digit point lead for Hochman, as well as steady support for him, points to an all but certain victory for him.

“It’s been all about Hochman and all the crime Gascon has caused in his four years in office,” LA County pollster Manny Rodriguez told the Globe Tuesday. “Gascon always had been wavering, especially after being nearly recalled a few years ago. But this election, they want him out. Ok, a Republican in LA looks better than him. Well, Republican until last year. That tells you something right there just how bad a job people think Gascon has done.

“The USC poll was not a surprise. It has just been this steady wave against him in polling. Gascon has that rock solid 20% for him, but beyond that, he’s probably hoping by down balloting voting based on the Harris-Trump election this November. There are a lot of undecided voters out there. But he’s 20 points behind. It’s not impossible for him to win as Hochman didn’t get above 50% in polling yet, but he is damn close. Gascon would need to convince virtually every undecided voter in L.A. And that ain’t happening. Statistically, the Margin of Error is closer to him than Hochman. Gascon made huge mistakes as DA, and he is now paying for it.”

Elections are due to be held next month on November 5th.