Poll: The Democratic Party’s lead among Latino voters is narrowing

While Vice President Kamala Harris is leading currently leading former President Donald Trump among Latino voters, the momentum may not hold on for long.

New national polling from NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC shows that the Democratic lead has fallen to its lowest point in the previous four presidential cycles, as the New York Post reported.

Despite Latinos being more inclined than the overall population to rank the economy and the increasing cost of living as top concerns, the poll indicates that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost favor with this demographic.

Trump has the support of Latino voters on both of these concerns, but when it comes to temperament, competence, and mental and physical health, Harris is preferred by the majority.

Spread of Support

The poll shows that among Latino registered voters, 54% support Harris, 40% support Trump, and 6% are unsure or would not vote. The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Based on NBC’s combined polling data from 2012 (by 39 points), 2016 (by 50 points), and 2020 (by 36 points), Harris’s 14-point lead is an improvement from President Joe Biden’s standing when he was at the top of the ticket, but it is still lower than winning the presidency.

Similarly, the percentage of Latino voters who favor Democrats over Republicans in Congress has shrunk to 42% from 54% in recent years.

“Latino voters are incredibly diverse. It can’t be overstressed,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his team at Public Opinion Strategies. “We are looking at Latino voters rather than a consolidated Latino community.”

Trump Ahead on the Economy

In a recent poll conducted by NBC News, Telemundo, and CNBC, Latino voters were asked to rank the presidential candidates based on their stances on a variety of subjects, including protection of immigrant rights, border security, combating crime, abortion, the economy, and growing costs of living.

Respondents rated Harris higher than Trump on three issues: crime (+5), abortion (+32), and immigrant rights (39 points).

When compared to Harris, Trump has a 9-point edge when it comes to tackling inflation and the cost of living, an advantage of 4 points when it comes to the economy, and an advantage of 13 points when it comes to controlling and guarding the border.

A total of 54% of Latinos surveyed ranked economic inequality and rising prices as their most pressing concerns.

Final Figures

Latinos prefer Harris to Trump across the board in terms of leadership capabilities and personal attributes needed for president, with a total of 28 points in favor of Harris and 25 points in favor of Trump in each of the seven categories measured.

This includes being trustworthy and honest (+26 points), having the appropriate temperament for the job (+28 points), and representing change (+21 points).

Additionally, Latino voters are asked to choose which political party they believe better handles the issues faced by the Hispanic community. Latino voters continue to lean toward the Democratic Party, with a preference of 47% to 20%.

This preference has not changed much from the previous survey in 2022. However, when asked which party better matches the ideals of Latino voters, the Democratic advantage drops to 11 points, 39%-28%, down from a 19-point lead two years ago.

When asked which party is more in line with Latino voters’ ideals; however, the Democratic lead shrinks to 11% (39%-28%), down from 19% two years ago.

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