Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman Throw Down in Catfight Over 2024 Election Predictions

We’ve been covering a lot of the polls, focus groups, betting markets, and other indicators in regard to the election.

But there was a funny catfight between two people who are election prognosticators, Professor Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver.

Lichtman has a system where he applies true or false questions to 13 questions. if there are six or more false answers, the challenger — in this case, former President Donald Trump — would win. But Lichtman has interpreted his keys and he’s predicting Kamala Harris will win.

This is how he’s interpreted the keys:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects [sic] major changes in national policy. TRUE
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
10. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
11. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
12. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
13. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

[…]

— Read More: redstate.com