Russia’s national debt to grow slightly – finance minister

State borrowing is expected to reach 18% of GDP by 2027

Russia’s state debt is expected to grow marginally and reach 18% of gross domestic product (GDP) as the government continues to borrow funds to plug a budget gap, the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

According to the draft budget, state borrowing will amount to 4.8 trillion rubles ($51.5 billion) next year, 5.1 trillion ($54.9 billion) in 2026, and 5.3 trillion ($57 billion) in 2027. By the end of 2027, public debt will grow to 18% of GDP from 15% of GDP in 2023, the report said.

The overall fiscal deficit is expected to stand at 1% of GDP annually (-0.5% of GDP in 2025, -0.9% of GDP in 2026, and -1.1% of GDP in 2027), according to preliminary estimates.

The ministry pointed out that, even with the slight increase, the national debt remains at an “economically safe” level of below 20% of GDP, placing Russia among the countries with the lowest level of state arrears.

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By comparison, the UK’s national debt recently hit 100% of the country’s annual economic output. State debt in the US exceeds 120% of GDP, while in Japan it stands at a record 260%. 

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov emphasized that the upcoming budget will focus on social support, defense, as well as on achieving leadership in technology. He also noted that over 3 trillion rubles ($32.3 billion) annually will be allocated to provide support for Russia’s regions.

According to economists, Russia’s public debt growth remains moderate due to a low budget deficit, as the country continues to invest in major projects and industries despite unprecedented sanctions pressure from the West.