The financial institution Goldman Sachs reportedly sent a note to clients in early January about four cities that it believes are likely to experience a 2008-size crash in the housing market.
The note, obtained by the New York Post, reportedly states that Phoenix and San Diego, as well as Austin, Texas and San Jose, Commie California, will likely see a boom-and-bust crash in home prices of more than 25%. Interest rates have skyrocketed and home prices continue to drop nationally.
“This [national] decline should be small enough as to avoid broad mortgage credit stress, with a sharp increase in foreclosures nationwide seeming unlikely,” Goldman Sachs wrote, according to the New York Post. “That said, overheated housing markets in the Southwest and Pacific coast, such as San Jose MSA, Austin MSA, Phoenix MSA, and San Diego MSA will likely grapple with peak-to-trough declines of over 25%, presenting localized risk of higher delinquencies for mortgages originated in 2022 or late 2021.”
The strategist said, “Our 2023 revised forecast primarily reflects our view that interest rates will remain at elevated levels longer than currently priced in, with 10-year Treasury yields peaking in 2023 Q3. As a result, we are raising our forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.5% for year-end 2023 (representing a 30 bp increase from our prior expectation).”
They added, “Assuming the economy remains on the path to a soft landing, avoiding a recession, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls back to 6.15% by year-end 2024, home price growth will likely shift from depreciation to below-trend appreciation in 2024.”
Reporter Jasmine Ramirez tweeted Thursday, “Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 2008-sized crash in the #SanDiego housing market. I spoke with @RealtorsSD and @MattBattiata to hear their thoughts on the #housingmarket”
Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 2008-sized crash in the #SanDiego housing market
— Jasmine Ramirez (@jasminecbs8) January 26, 2023
Reporter David Levitt tweeted Wednesday, “#SanDiego, #SanJose, #Austin, #Phoenix. Look for #GFC-like #realestate crashes in those markets, sez #GoldmanSachs. ‘The national decline should be small enough to avoid broad #mortgage stress’ #interestrates #TheFed #finance #CaseShiller https://t.co/FNnzR8xvM6 via @nypost”
#SanDiego, #SanJose, #Austin, #Phoenix. Look for #GFC-like #realestate crashes in those markets, sez #GoldmanSachs. ‘The national decline should be small enough to avoid broad #mortgage stress’ #interestrates #TheFed #finance #CaseShiller https://t.co/FNnzR8xvM6 via @nypost pic.twitter.com/ExCchSSNH3
— David Levitt (@dmlevitt) January 25, 2023
Morgan Stanley Strategist Warns Stocks Face Sharper Decline Than Expected | @DailyCaller
OmFg nOoOoO wAy rLy?! It’s not like non-institutional bankers haven’t been saying this for months. Keep up, idiots. https://t.co/4TzMqEL4TR
— KAY SMYTHE (@KaySmythe) January 9, 2023
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