Dr Patrick English is the Director of Political Analytics at YouGov.
But rather than this being the UK in April 2024, I’m describing Spain in April 2023. Pedro Sanchez’s left-wing coalition government is fraying, and their principal opposition, the centre-right Partido Popular (PP), are enjoying a stable, double-digit lead over his Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE).
Defeat in an election due to be held by the end of the year – a fact seemingly confirmed by Sanchez himself mere weeks earlier – seems certain. The proposed replacement coalition of the right, between PP and the far-right Vox, hit a combined 50 per cent of vote intention in some polls.
Fast-forward to 28 May, and PSOE face something approaching electoral oblivion at the ballot box during Spain’s municipal (local authority) and regional elections.
The day after what was described as a “crippling” defeat, Sanchez did the only logical thing: call a snap election. With his party behind in the polls and a ballot not due until “the second half of the year”, and an local election hammering to boot, the prime minister announced the general election for 23 June.
The move was so sudden it took many within Sanchez’ own party by surprise, but it had a clear strategic aim: to wrong-foot the opposition and force them into taking snap decisions about candidates, their campaign, policy positions, and their prospective coalition partners.
And it worked; early on in the count on the evening of 23 June, it was clear that the PP polling lead had evaporated and that the prospective right-wing coalition would fail to reach the majority line. Sanchez would instead remain as prime minister and be given the chance to form a new multi-party government.
The parallels (minus the coalitions and an obvious flip of the political axes) between the situation Sanchez found himself in, and then successfully got himself out of, in the spring of 2023 and the situation Sunak now has before him in 2024 are uncanny.
And it raises the question: could Sunak pull a Sanchez? Will we see the government-branded lectern outside the Downing Street steps on 3 May, or some other day soon after the full extent of the results of the local elections are known?
The Prime Minister needs to pull off a Hail Mary pass to avoid what seems to be certain defeat in the coming. Why not repeat the Sanchez play?
Despite avoiding losing the premiership in that election, the left-wing coalition did lose their parliamentary majority – and by some margin. PSOE and the newly-formed leftist party-bloc ‘Sumar’ won 152 seats between them, with 176 needed for a majority. Sanchez was forced to turn toward pro-independence parties in both Catalonia and the Basque Country to avoid having to call a second snap election to try and resolve what looked to be a perennially hung parliament.
Eventually, after a series of negotiations and the failure of PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s attempt to win a parliamentary vote on appointing him as prime minister, Sanchez was able to put together a majority coalition by gathering support from no fewer than seven separate parties: Sumar, the right-leaning pro-Catalonian independence ‘Junts per Catalunya’, their left-wing counterparts ERC, the right-leaning pro-Basque independence EAJ/PNV, their left-wing counterparts EH Bildu, the pro-Galacian independents BNG, and the ‘Coalición Canaria (Canary Islands nationalists).
While none of the pro-independence parties have taken positions in Sanchez’s cabinet, his government nonetheless relies on their support to maintain power. This support, naturally, has come (and comes with) certain costs – or extractions, depending on your point of view.
One of the most consequential concessions Sanchez and PSOE gave in order to form their multiparty government was to grant political amnesty to Catalan independence leaders who had been in exile from Spain since the events surrounding the 2017 Catalonian independence referendum.
This ballot was deemed illegal by the Spanish courts, and arrest warrants were sent out for its organisers. Those warrants are due to be withdrawn.
Giving amnesty and facilitating a return to the political frontline for figures such as Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president, was a particularly bold and highly controversial move, and one which has come at significant cost to PSOE in the polls. Many pro-Spanish (anti-independence) voters who backed the party in June were unamused by the deal, to say the least.
The effects of the amnesty may well become particularly loud and apparent next month, with Catalonia itself headed for a snap regional parliament election after the pro-independence coalition government failed to pass a budget. None other than Puidgemont himself will lead Junts into that election.
The post Patrick English: Lessons from Spain – could Sunak pull a Sanchez? appeared first on Conservative Home.
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Author: Dr Patrick English
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