Imagine if N.C. had an electoral college

Here’s a fun thought experiment: Imagine North Carolina adopted the same system we use to choose the president — an electoral college.

Each county gets “electoral votes” equal to the number of N.C. House members it sends to Raleigh, plus one additional vote to simulate U.S. Senate-style representation.

That’s exactly what I did. And the results are eye-opening.

Using this system, Mark Robinson would be governor today — even though he lost the popular vote by double digits.

How? Because Robinson dominated in small, rural counties that get overrepresented under this model, while Gov. Josh Stein’s strength in urban centers like Wake and Mecklenburg gets heavily discounted.

Take a look.

Under this system, every county has at least two electoral votes (similar to how small states in the U.S. get three). This creates unusual dynamics.

Take Wake County and Mecklenburg County. They’re the two population giants in North Carolina, with 820,201 and 800,814 registered voters respectively.

In this system, each gets 14 electoral votes. That accounts for the 13 House members in each county, plus the one “Senate” vote.

Now compare that to Hyde County and Tyrrell County. Combined, they have just 5,324 registered voters. Yet they get two electoral votes each.

Wake and Meck have 304 times more voters, but just 7 times as many electoral votes.

You might guess what that does to the governor’s race math. But it’s still shocking to see.

Despite losing 55% to 40%, Robinson handily wins the executive mansion. Pat McCrory is a two-term governor, and Dan Forest wins in a landslide.

I’m not saying that North Carolina should go this route. In fact, I’d say it’s a bad idea. But it’s super fascinating to think about.

Because it exposes how different the political geography of North Carolina has become in such a short time. Less than a generation ago, Democrats had broad appeal across the state. Now, Democrats only dominate high-population cities. Republicans own the map.

This also illustrates why Republicans have a built-in structural advantage in the legislature. General Assembly districts have to be at least reasonably compact, and there’s simply no way to create a map that isn’t Republican dominated.

But here’s the kicker: That same advantage doesn’t translate statewide. Governor’s races, Senate contests, even judicial elections — these are all decided by raw vote totals. And that means urban and suburban turnout dominates unless Republicans find a way to grow beyond the rural base.

So while the GOP controls the legislature by geography, it keeps losing the governor’s mansion by math.

Flip it around, and you see the Democrats’ problem just as clearly.

To win majorities in the General Assembly, Democrats can’t keep relying on Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte to carry the weight. They need a message that travels — one that resonates with working-class voters in eastern North Carolina and mountain towns west of Asheville.

Put simply: Democrats need to expand the map. Republicans need to broaden the message.

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Important reads

• Reagan Perry, Daughter of Former Sen Jim Perry, & the Bill That Bears Her Name (Do Politics Better podcast)

• Senate Dems are getting bullish about prized recruit Roy Cooper (Axios)

• Dan Blue, longtime NC Democratic leader, is now the swing vote to watch (N&O)

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Question of the week

Last week, I asked you to weigh in on your favorite potential state symbol. A slim majority of you went with the Andy Griffith Show (51%). Moravian cookies came in second with 38% of the vote, with Petey Pablo’s anthem in a distant third (8%).

This week, I want to touch on the State Board of Elections. There’s an ongoing fight over the board’s makeup and control.

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